Nearly a month after NFL players first started reporting for training camp and less than three weeks before the season is set to kick off, the league has avoided the type of COVID-19 disruptions that have caused so much agita in Major League Baseball and college football.
Optimism is growing that the NFL will be able to pull off its highest-risk season since the 1987 strike year — in some form. But everyone from owners to club season-ticket managers knows they’re performing a high-wire act, with the real test of travel and games still to come.
Fans remain the biggest variable, with teams in 30 markets dealing with unique political and public health equations. As of Aug. 19, 12 teams have said they won’t have fans, at least to start the year. Five have announced reduced capacities, with none exceeding 25% to start, and 15 had not yet made decisions.
The NFL will avoid financial catastrophe as long as the full 16-game season — scheduled to start Sept. 10 with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs hosting the Texans — and the newly extended postseason are played. But the lack of fans is projected to cost between $2 billion and $4 billion this year, with losses especially high in places like New York and Las Vegas, where fans have already been ruled out. Expect that to hit player salaries next year.
NFL insiders believe the league is better suited than MLB to deal with outbreaks on teams without the widespread scheduling disruption, because playing once weekly will better allow teams to know who has COVID-19 heading into game days. Also, teams can better control players on road trips because there is little free time for NFL players compared with other sports.
Unlike MLB, however, the NFL will have more trouble rescheduling games. League schedulers have built in some flexibility, though. Canceling or postponing regular-season games is the NFL’s biggest concern, but the first four weeks of the season were structured to minimize unfairness if they were eliminated. Also, the Super Bowl could be pushed by a few weeks from its current date of Feb. 7 without too much trouble to make up canceled games.
