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Volume 26 No. 4
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Antonio Brown Deemed Player On The Move To Deliver Most Value

The NFL league year begins today, and Antonio Brown is the most valuable NFL player on the market this offseason, according to an analysis by Block Six Analytics (B6A). The soon-to-be Raiders WR delivered $39.2M in value to the Steelers last season.

RANK
PLAYER ('18 TEAM)
'18 VALUE
PROJECTED '19 TEAM
1)
Antonio Brown (Steelers)
$39,159,120
Raiders
2)
Joe Flacco (Ravens)
$31,654,828
Broncos
3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buccaneers)
$31,341,215
TBD
4)
Josh Gordon* (Patriots)
$24,416,598
TBD
5)
DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys)
$23,067,726
Cowboys**
6)
Nick Foles (Eagles)
$22,057,467
Jaguars
7)
Case Keenum (Broncos)
$20,198,170
Redskins
8)
Jadeveon Clowney (Texans)
$15,749,004
Texans**
9)
Ndamukong Suh (Rams)
$14,038,486
TBD
10)
Earl Thomas (Seahawks)
$13,483,619
TBD
NOTES: *= Includes one game with Browns and 11 with Patriots; **= Given Franchise Tag
Download the
AB Chart

The model, called Revenue Above Replacement (RAR), determines how much a player impacts a team’s top-line revenue by examining on-field and off-field factors. Top-line revenue includes a team’s gameday, traditional media, digital media, corporate hospitality and apparel sales. On-field factors account for how well a player performed and the number of snaps he participated in to determine how much he contributed to his team’s wins. Then, RAR looks at the value of winning for that team. According to the data, some teams were more reliant on winning to generate revenue than others. “We found that the New York Jets were the most dependent on winning to generate revenue while the Pittsburgh Steelers were the least dependent,” said Block Six CEO & Founder Adam Grossman. The off-field performance focuses on a player’s star power. The study, which was conducted before the Browns traded for Odell Beckham Jr., found that jersey sales, social media value, and earned media value had the most impact on a team’s revenue. Social media value focuses on the number of user interactions with posts by the player while earned media examines the ability to for the player to be mentioned in all channels. Grossman said off-field factors had a much higher correlation to revenue generation and frequently generate more value for teams from their off-field performance than from on-field performance. Similar to on-field factors, off-field factors will have a different economic impact in different markets. “Brown helps to show why winning should not be everything or the only thing when teams evaluate player performance,” Grossman said. “Even though he did not have his best on-field year, his off-field performance makes him 2019’s most valuable free agent because star power’s strong relationship to revenue generation.”

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: B6A also examined the top players in the NFL overall using RAR. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes delivered the most value to his team last season. QBs are typically the most valuable on-field and off-field players for their teams; Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins is the most valuable non-QB, with a delivered value of $43.4M.

RANK
PLAYER
'18 VALUE
1)
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
$103,780,680
2)
Saints QB Drew Brees
$78,919,160
3)
Patriots QB Tom Brady
$76,749,352
4)
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
$75,347,246
5)
Browns QB Baker Mayfield
$65,545,064
6)
Colts QB Andrew Luck
$54,807,378
7)
Rams QB Jared Goff
$53,428,229
8)
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson
$53,208,837
9)
Texans QB Deshaun Watson
$52,734,315
10)
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger
$40,782,675
Download the
Mahomes chart