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Sports and Society

Will Fans Be Tested?

Teams and leagues are mulling the idea for event entry, but there are major barriers.

A temporary test center at Miller Park this month allowed people to be checked for COVID-19. Teams are looking at testing options as they seek ways to get fans back in the stands.getty images

With rising numbers of COVID-19 cases, more attention has shifted to the idea of testing fans for the virus before they are allowed inside a sporting event. But the concept raises questions about logistics, who would pay for the tests and whether fans would even be willing to go to such an extreme.

The approach gained added attention recently  when the Golden State Warriors outlined a $30 million plan to open San Francisco’s Chase Center to 9,000 fans, or 50% capacity, by administering daily PCR tests (polymerase chain reaction) to every fan, team employee and player during the 2020-21 NBA season. The plan has since been rejected by city officials because of concerns over spikes in COVID cases in the market, but it could be revisited on a smaller scale.

As the NBA and NHL each move toward the launch of new seasons, testing has been at least part of the discussion, with teams weighing the issue of costs and fan comfort levels, and navigating the patchwork of local and state laws governing health and safety protocols for large gatherings.

Reports show that the NBA’s protocols would require fans seated within 30 feet of the court to return a negative PCR test no more than two days before the game, or an NBA-approved rapid test on the day of the game. Suites and clubs could be filled to 25% capacity without testing. That number could be increased to 50% if all fans in the suite are tested or the specific county’s seven-day COVID-19 positivity rate meets specific requirements.

Testing for many teams would be particularly relevant for premium seat customers given the high price of the ticket related to the cost of a test. One team executive said they are not interested in testing large numbers of fans but would likely test premium seat customers at least initially to gauge fan response and interest in the approach to attending games.

“There will be a certain percentage of the audience and it will be really interesting to see what the appetite is to get tested,” the executive said. “We certainly think that on a game-by-game basis there will be a market. We want to create some consistency across the league.” 

Getting fans comfortable with the idea of testing and making it convenient will be critical to attract fans into arenas. 

“We might not sell any seats that aren’t premium because the cost of testing might outweigh the cost of the tickets,” said another NBA team executive. “Teams will make their own decisions. We have to make it convenient and we have to bear the costs.” 

While figures vary greatly depending on individual markets, sources estimate the average ticket revenue per game in the NBA ranges from $1 million to $2.5 million, though big-market teams such as the Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks are outliers with between $3 million and $4 million in per-game ticket revenue. That’s why a team such as the Warriors would be willing to spend more on testing.

One NHL team executive said  testing and safety protocols for fans — if and when they return to venues in 2020-21 — is a fluid conversation between the league office and clubs. The senior executive cautioned that the cost for testing fans (especially those in lower-priced upper bowl seats) before they enter an arena is prohibitive for a lot of clubs, especially those in smaller markets. Additionally, asking fans to possibly not only test themselves and incur those costs, but to provide proof of a negative coronavirus test, could be a huge barrier to entry, the executive said.

Of course, testing could be a moot point if states won’t allow fans in the first place, or if later into the season vaccines are widely distributed and thus lower the risk factors. Indeed, several NBA teams have already announced plans to start the new season in empty arenas. Because of the fluid nature of the situation, team executives declined to speak on the record.

Among the testing companies aiming for a piece of the sports market is ixLayer, which counts the U.S. Coast Guard, Commonwealth of Massachusetts and Stanford University Healthcare among its clients. So far the firm hasn’t signed any deals in sports, but it is in talks to do so, said Pouria Sanae, founder and CEO of the company. “The NBA teams we’re talking to are still in the brainstorming phase of any plan to test fans,” Sanae said.

Sanae said teams could take a two-pronged approach to testing, with season-ticket holders being mailed team-branded tests to use at home, while single-game ticket holders would be tested on-site. Sanae noted that test prices are coming down from the $100 range to close to $30 to $40 when purchased in bulk.

Any testing program would have to involve ticketing companies as well.

Ticketmaster is giving event operators multiple options to reopen venues that comply with local regulations, including the possibility of asking fans for test results or proof of a COVID-19 vaccination. A third-party health care provider with HIPAA compliance would handle any health information rather than Ticketmaster.

Health officials have set up screenings outside multiple sports venues to monitor the spread of the virus.getty images

Ticketing company AXS, however, will not be asking any of its event organizers to test fans, primarily because of the logistical challenge, said CEO Bryan Perez. “If you look at Los Angeles County, the largest in the United States with 11 million people, they only administer a total of 50,000 tests a day,” Perez said. “Doing it on-site, even if it takes a minute to do a rapid test, when you’re talking about loading an arena or stadium, we’ve seen response times that are in the milliseconds and even then lines can form as people come.” 

Perez also said the tests aren’t always accurate. He said someone could be tested 48 hours before an event and still get infected in the window of time before a game or concert. 

If venues did implement testing requirements, Perez doubts the cost would be passed on to fans. “In Germany, they’re getting the tests down to the 6 euro range,” he said. “If that’s the case, and they’re accurate enough, the teams and venues will take that on or maybe add a fee, but when they’re $100 to $150, that’s cost prohibitive.” 

As one NBA team executive said, if tests cost between $80 to $120 per person, that would in some cases be more than the price of a seat. 

“The yield isn’t there,” the executive said. “What you will end up with is a hodgepodge of teams where testing makes sense like in New York, Los Angeles or San Francisco, where ticket prices are higher. The ticket prices will justify the testing.” 

Whether testing is feasible, would fans accept it?

Bernie Mullin, a former team and league executive, is now founder and chairman of The Aspire Group, which specializes in building fan relationships across ticketing. He said the agency has surveyed tens of thousands of fans and found their reactions to COVID to be “frankly all over the place.”

“For the avid fans, if it takes being tested to attend a game, they will do it. Our best guess is that’s about one-third of all fans,” Mullin said. “The middle third, in our experience, are currently buying tickets, when they are available, but not necessarily attending. So it’s hard to know if they’d accept a test as a pre-condition to attending. The final third of fans are expressing negativity about attending at all right now, with some of this group saying they may never come back. We expect that opinion to soften with time passing and those fans attending not becoming infected to any significant degree.”

Jack Luce, director of strategy, analytics and marketing of The Aspire Group, referenced how 9/11 changed the travel and live event industry in terms of security. “Thinking about the influx of security checks and metal detectors, that kind of serves as a proxy for a changed impact on your experience and obviously fans have adjusted to that,” Luce said. “This is a little more invasive, it has to do with their personal health, so I don’t know if we’ve seen something like this, at least in the past, or in recent years.” 

An Aspire Group survey of more than 5,000 fans, however, did show that 61% of respondents said COVID testing of game-day staff was “very important” or “extremely important” to their decision on whether to attend an event.

Staff writer Mark J. Burns contributed to this report.

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