How often do you think about the future? We ask because as the new decade dawns, it certainly seems like the future is coming at us faster than ever.
Nonsense, you reply. The days ahead never arrive any faster than the days that went before. All things come in their time. Each day contains 24 hours. Each decade only 10 years.
Still, as the baby boomers begin retiring en masse (bringing upon us an era of unprecedented demographic change), it’s valuable for future CEOs to spend more time predicting where things are truly headed. The best leaders continually minimize the reality of the present to better understand the possibilities of the future.
As a simple example, California legislators recently passed Senate Bill 206 that might, in 2023, let NCAA athletes competing in California leverage their name, image and likeness. Known as the Fair Pay to Play Act, it is the first formal development in the wide-ranging discussion of compensating student athletes. Although challenges are expected, if this law (or others in multiple states) goes into effect, it will have major consequences for intercollegiate sport and could dramatically reshape America’s sporting landscape.
But what would those changes look like? Well, there are some major considerations.
1. These laws could open doors for athletes (and their agents) to sign contracts with brands that provide compensation for an athlete’s NIL, but only if the contract is not in conflict with their university’s existing agreements (plus a few other restrictions). On a simplistic level, this is easy to grasp but the specifics are vast and many related issues remain unanswered. For instance, how will anyone manage boosters who don’t represent consumer brands?
2. Questions on jurisdiction will also come to the fore. Will the NCAA change its rules to accommodate select states? Or will a federal omnibus law come to exist? None of us may know the answer but sponsors such as Intel (which recently declined to renew with the NCAA) may move toward other investments.
3. Given that the NCAA has no federal antitrust exemption and the NCAA is the development system for the NFL, NBA and some NHL/MLB players, will we look back in 10 years on SB 206 as a tipping point for elite sport development in America?
You might argue 2023 is a long ways away and that SB 206 is likely to get amended between now and then. But, our obligation as regular contributors is to engage industry leaders, get their opinions on where Wayne Gretzky’s proverbial puck is going and pass those projections along.
So, let’s dig a bit deeper.
If the future of the NCAA is headed toward a sea change with cord-cutting and the decline of the RSN, what does Pay to Play add to this reality? We’ve been talking to people like Liverpool CEO Peter Moore, T1 Agency CEO Mark Harrison and Leaders of Evolution co-founder Jon Shepherd. Moore is in Great Britain, Harrison in Canada and Shepherd in Australia. They shared their thoughts about the future, giving us five areas that the industry should keep an eye on in the decade ahead.
1. Stadium technology will continue expanding and take more resources from the world’s leagues and team owners. The two new stadiums in San Francisco (49ers, Warriors) plus everything designed for Tokyo 2020 have made that concept quite evident. Stated another way, as clubs factor in the comforts of home viewing, variable win-loss records, free-agency superstars and technological advancements in personal media platforms, the stadium experience must provide more than ever before.
2. Sports organizations will increasingly draw on global workforces that can jump borders. Flexible working environments and project-based deliverables will disrupt the 40-hour workweek as will traditional salary concepts. Workers will be expected to learn on the job (which means lifelong learners will out-earn those who refuse to learn) and workers will possibly be offered higher pay but less long-term security. Short-term services will likely “beat” long-term skills and loyalty.
3. Technology platforms mean big clubs will grow their global fan bases by building technologically dynamic “supporter clubs” all over the world. Top teams will soon purchase growth market real estate to support their fans via “micro-stadiums.” Yes, real estate will once again become a key global strategy, augmented by the rise of gambling mixed with virtual reality.
4. Despite growing concerns about heading the ball and CTE, women’s football (soccer), will (finally) grow as women increasingly become the primary decision-makers. In addition, the disparity between what men’s national team players are paid and what their female counterparts receive will be resolved. And the day is not far off where we discuss women’s professional sport from a true gender equity standpoint.
5. New visualizations of sport will enable better media consumption in order to accommodate younger generation demands. Unique camera systems and data management systems will facilitate fan avidity and engagement, growing gambling habits and manipulation of the humans (or machines) that are, in their essence, the product.
Are there more than five things on our list? Of course! But for a start of the new year column, this ought to get us all thinking about 2020-29.
Rick Burton is the David B. Falk Professor of Sport Management at Syracuse University and SU’s faculty athletic representative (FAR) to the ACC and NCAA. Norm O’Reilly is director of the International Institute for Sport Business & Leadership at the University of Guelph and partner consultant at T1.
Questions about OPED guidelines or letters to the editor? Email editor Jake Kyler at jkyler@sportsbusinessjournal.com
