The best job in the world is giving speeches as a futurist. Easy.
Why? Because futurists never stick around to see if they are right. Plus, they know in advance their audience is uncomfortable with change. Start with tension. Open with a riff telling the group something worth loving is doomed. About to get zapped. Replaced. Transformed.
The West will run out of water. Football is headed for extinction. New Orleans is sinking.
Works every time. So, we’ll play that role today. But first, the setup.
For those in the sports industry, the concept of “change” or “pending change” is nothing new. Change is constant, imminent, disruptive and, often enough, sudden. It’s usually best characterized by reactions of fear, clumsy inefficiency, even frantic resistance.
That’s why it’s good to acknowledge that the concept of change is very real. Particularly in sports where new media, digital technology, online gambling and data analytics are creating watershed days.
That certainly holds up if we consider esports growth, cable cutting, event streaming, gambling laws, drugs, virtual reality, dynamic sports platforms and fast-moving trends.
But where is the future going?
In our view, the issue begins and ends with a discussion on content.
Over the past three decades many have written about content as king, the need to control content, content quality, decreasing prices on content, bundled content, platforms for content, fans and viewers paying for content they don’t want, mega-content, low-value content and, queen of them all, content rights.
Yes, content still holds the keys to the kingdom and control of that content has been the revenue driver protected by sport organizations for the last 75 years. But where goeth content? Are three-hour games threatened? Are bad teams (that always lose) in more trouble than they realize? Are leagues with too many poorly run franchises at risk? Are 7 p.m. start times foolish?
One only needs to point to baseball to attack and defend this topic. Despite an aging fan base and decreasing ratings, MLB has experienced exceptional growth in revenue and franchise values, due in large part to its massive amount of content (162-game season) and unique management of digital content (MLBAM).
And yet, as students in one of our honors baseball classes pointed out, MLB’s restrictions on the release of content (as opposed to the NBA’s instant sharing of highlights on Twitter) means MLB is rapidly falling behind in the social engagement of casual fans. The NBA far exceeds all the other leagues in this space and the NBA’s star players are far more active in discussing their games and lives.
We believe readers will see notable chaos in the content space over the next two years. We’re even willing to predict readers will someday look back on 2019-20 as the mini-era when major content components shifted. That’s before the NFL signs new broadcast contracts in 2021.
Let us explain.
First, esports is here. As SBJ readers know, esports is real. Millions of participants. Millionaire star athletes. Major sponsorship investments streaming in. Ninja (the gamer) already ahead of Ronaldo (the global superstar) in social media followers. Prize purses have reached eight and nine figures that are often crowdsourced. And all with content that is essentially digital only.
Second, athletes and clubs are showing more interest in controlling their own content and going vertical. They have become increasingly willing to limit the role of the traditional risk-taker (TV networks). Impossible you say? Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson are already staging their own golf events and determining their up-front cut in advance.
In other places, Spanish athletes in La Liga are objecting to “tour” games. They want part of the take. And, coming up sooner than we think, Inter Milan will play Bayern Munich and stream the game themselves.
This doesn’t mean TV networks will go out of business, but conversations about content creation and content control are getting colorful.
For instance, the IOC just announced seven new disciplines for the 2022 Winter Olympics, in Beijing. Although some are logical, the holistic message screams “cool for youth” (e.g., big air skiing), equity (i.e., most new disciplines are female) and balanced (i.e., the announcement of new mixed-gender team events). More powerful is this: All of the new disciplines feature events lasting seconds or minutes. Not hours.
Or look at The Athletic, the website seeking to emerge as the Netflix of sports coverage. With reportedly more than 100,000 subscribers each paying $5 a month, the business model is worth understanding. So is the fact that unlike Netflix, The Athletic creates all of its own content.
We won’t tell you control of content is less important than it was years ago. But management and ownership of content is changing rapidly and happening at a time when athletes have more leverage, there are more choices for distribution, and mega content (World Series, Indy 500, etc.) are far less meaningful.
We don’t work as after-dinner futurists yet (although maybe this column will get us started). But the above are a few thoughts we imagine no one will recall even a few months from now.
Rick Burton is the David B. Falk Professor of Sport Management at Syracuse University and former chief marketing officer for the USOC. Norm O’Reilly is professor and assistant dean of executive programs at the University of Guelph and partner consultant at T1. Their book, “20 Secrets to Success for NCAA Student Athletes Who Won’t Go Pro,” was published by Ohio University Press.
