| ■ North and south of the border. Because making economic comparisons across national borders and fluctuating currencies is difficult, we didn’t include cities in Canada or Mexico in our assessments. But it’s clear they’re in play. Montreal likely would rise to the top of the list in MLB were it to secure funding for a ballpark. With a team in four of the five major leagues, Toronto often was mentioned as a home for the Buffalo Bills when that franchise was in play. Mexico City clocks in as the most populous metro area in the western hemisphere, so it seems likely that one of the leagues eventually will consider moving beyond annual exhibitions and placing a team there.
■ A kernel of hope. The most populous city to miss qualifying for closer consideration in our study, Louisville, Ky., met our benchmarks for population (1.3 million) and Fortune 1000 headquarters (five), but missed slightly in TV market (653,000 households) and, most importantly, metro GDP ($70.7 billion).
Weighing in as a nearly identical twin to Memphis, which is 384 miles southwest, Louisville would profile best as an NBA candidate, particularly when considering the downtown arena that opened there in 2010. A pro franchise would have to share the building with the popular and influential University of Louisville basketball program, as the Grizzlies do with the University of Memphis.
While that’s a hurdle, geography may be the larger one. Louisville is only 113 miles from the nearest NBA market, Indianapolis, and also connects culturally and historically with the pro teams in Ohio. It might be ready to stand on its own. But at what cost to its neighbors?
■ ML-Yes. While all five leagues are likely to relocate a franchise or expand at some point, it’s MLS that is spreading most, and fastest,
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and with the most certainty. Atlanta, which already has secured an MLS franchise, and St. Louis, always mentioned high on the list of suitors, both made our cut for consideration, as did San Diego, which also has a moderate soccer push afoot. But with plans to expand into Minneapolis, L.A., Atlanta, Miami and four more cities in the coming years, it’s worth mentioning some of the contenders who did not make our list.
Detroit and Phoenix are the two largest metros without an MLS team. They are similarly sized, though Phoenix is growing while Detroit stagnates. They’re also both four-team markets that appear to be well short of accommodating a fifth team, based on the metrics we tracked. Still, indications are that MLS would especially like to get into Detroit, where downtown revitalization is a priority.
Sacramento is a market that has done much to set itself up as a leading candidate, but it falls short in two key areas. Its GDP ($119 billion) is just shy of the two-team average. More disconcerting is the fact that it’s not home to a single Fortune 1000 company. Two other markets that have made strong cases, Cincinnati and San Antonio, also come up short in key areas. Because of its proximity to some other vacant markets, Cincinnati might be more likely to overcome its shortfalls in metro GDP ($127 billion), population (2.1 million) and TV market (869,000). But it also might infringe upon Columbus in the process. San Antonio is more distant from existing MLS franchises in Dallas and Houston, but it has more ground to make up in GDP ($109 billion) to compare to other two-team markets. Tampa and Nashville are two markets that have come to the table more recently. Other than its TV market, there’s nothing in the data to recommend Tampa for graduation from three teams to four. Similarly, Nashville falls well short of the typical three-team market in every area we reviewed.
— Bill King
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