SportsBusiness Journal asked several key figures in the industry to tell us the top issues they expect to make headlines in 2004.
TOM FOX
Vice president, sports and entertainment marketing, Gatorade
"The Kobe Bryant trial will dominate the headlines, the NHL labor situation will get a lot of ink as will the TV negotiations for MLB and the NFL. College sports, whether it's conference realignment, the BCS or reforms being pushed by the presidents, will also be big stories. I don't think any other topics will come close to those.
"Audience fragmentation is old news and the media buyers have moved on, athlete reputations take a hit all the time but that's not new, and technological challenges to TV are a long way off with TiVo penetration at only about 1 percent."
CHRIS SMITH
Chief strategy officer, The Marketing Arm
"One of the largest issues facing sports marketers in 2004 will be the meteoric growth of 'retailtainment' and the competitive threat it will pose to traditional sports sponsorships. As properties fight to retain sponsors by offering naming rights to everything from the cheerleaders to the cupholders, they unintentionally minimize the value of their sponsorships by creating a much-too-cluttered environment. Brands will turn to entertaining consumers at retail where consumers are ready to purchase products and do not look at product offers as intrusive, product sampling is a welcomed educational service and there is a built-in and immediate measurement system in place called the cash register. Savvy properties will understand this competitive threat and be able to address it when sponsors mention retailtainment as a viable option."
JOHN GALLOWAY
Director of sports marketing, Pepsi
"On-screen and on-air technology is advancing at a rapid pace as sponsors demand more for their dollars. When will consumers throw up their hands and say 'too much'? And when will properties develop technologies to discover whether these new methods actually move the needle for sponsors?"
MARK CUBAN
Owner, Dallas Mavericks
"It's all about collective-bargaining agreements and television deals. No question these two issues will dominate sports."
BRUCE MILLER
Principal, HOK Sport
"At least a dozen new minor league baseball projects will start in 2004, leading to a record number of facility openings in 2006."
ANDY DOLICH
President of business operations, Memphis Grizzlies
"Athens 2004 will be a major story, especially in the context of dealing with the security issues that affect everyone's daily life. This will be an Olympics under an incredible global microscope."
JOHN TATUM
Founder, Genesco Sports Enterprises
"2004 will be a critical year for sports to prove it is a sound business/marketing investment for corporate America. It will be interesting to watch each sport evolve into a better marketing partner for their respective sponsors and prove that they can positively impact a sponsor's bottom line.
"Will the 2004 Summer Olympic Games be successful in driving their sponsors' market-share growth, or will the event be another expensive investment that is overshadowed by the presidential election or one of the traditional sports league properties? Will the NFL work through the issues of their Trust agreement with the teams and emerge as an even stronger platform for brands? Will MLB's restructured marketing team create an advantage for that sport to take a leadership role in activating their corporate sponsors' platforms? Will NASCAR continue to grow and dominate fan avidity quotients for sponsors' brands, or will it reach a sponsorship saturation level that creates too much marketplace clutter? Will someone please create a very simple eight-team college football playoff system that utilizes the bowls and the BCS ranking system? And, will it finally be proven whether 'spectator' sports are more effective or less effective than 'participatory' sports in terms of increasing sales of a sponsor's brand?
"The only sure bet for 2004 is incorporating a 'vote' thematic into your spring and summer marketing in order to capitalize on the wave of media heading into the fall elections. Whether you vote for your favorite ESPN moment or your favorite athlete or determine what is America's pastime — Corporate America shouldn't try to get too cute. Keep it simple. Don't try to be too 'cutting edge.'"
ROSS GREENBURG
President, HBO Sports
"Vitali Klitschko will be anointed the future of the heavyweight division. And his brother Wladimir will be right behind him, and could possibly also become heavyweight champion. The public focus will be on the heavyweight division even though everyone considers it thin, because what we're dealing with right now is a passing of the torch. Lennox Lewis will not reign much longer, so there has to be a shifting of one era to the next."
"The Red Sox-Yankee rivalry will be as fierce as any in the history of modern sports, and I will not be able to predict if the curse will be broken."
