Beneath the stacks of throwback jerseys, behind the horde of the bobblehead dolls, lies the simple truth about trends — predicting the next craze remains an inexact science.
Sure, point-of-sale software can amplify buying patterns. Forecasting services stand ready to handicap the odds of fleece over corduroy, and to guide manufacturers through petal pink versus olive drab.
But for companies dealing in licensed products, pinpointing future fads with any certainty is about as likely as picking the next Triple Crown winner.
"Nobody ever knows how these things go," said John Horan, publisher of Sporting Goods Intelligence.
For Ed Doran, president of VF Activeware, prognosticating is complicated by the fact that his company devotes about a quarter of its line to the Stanley Cup, Super Bowl and other event-specific products, a business segment where plot lines grow cold quickly and the sales window closes days after a big win.
Leagues and licensees look for a variety of ways to create buzz, from hiring and outfitting urban street-league players and university trendsetters to showcasing celebrity athletes — take Tiger Woods and the recent collar-less golf shirt experiment, said J. Lewis Hardy, executive vice president of Licensing Resource Group, a licensing consulting firm.
Sometimes the buzz comes from other sources. Tina D'Aversa-Williams, publisher of Sports Edge and SportingKid magazines, traces the current retro revival in apparel back to shoe appearances in music videos. Most recently, Nelly gave vintage goods a boost by showing his affinity for Air Force One sneaks, which he sang about on his 2002 hit "Nellyville."
Success is in being able to react and fill orders when products soar, observers say.
Majestic Athletic is cranking out vintage Cooperstown baseball jerseys and other retro wear. The company's replica Boston Red Sox jersey sells online in the $140 range, while an authentic Houston Astros home jersey is priced in the $320 neighborhood. "We've been able to attack certain trends," said Christine Konyak, vice president of design and merchandising for Majestic.
While the throwback jerseys are going out the door, Majestic product planners are working nine months to a year ahead. Licensees have to look that far, Hardy said, because so much manufacturing has moved overseas, lengthening the gestation time.
Majestic tries to stay nimble by keeping some production domestic. The company, a licensee for the NBA, NHL and MLB, uses forecasting services to gather intelligence about colors, cuts, fabric and overall trends. Lines are previewed early in the apparel season, allowing time to make corrections based on feedback from retail buyers.
VF Activewear's research process includes trade and fashion shows, concept meetings and focus groups. "We give people a lot of freedom to get their creative juices flowing," Doran said. The company has dabbled in new inks and heavily embellished garments. Consumers rarely see the flops because retail buyers pass them over, killing the losers at the R&D stage.
Ideas have to be reconciled with budgets and the leagues, who are doing their own research, Doran said. VF Activewear meets with each licensing client about 20 times a year.
Doran's 800-person company, purchased in 1993 by VF Corp., the parent of Lee and JanSport, can afford supply chain software from companies such as i2 and Logility. The software helps companies manage their inventory and delivery channels.
Mole Hill, a small Fairfield, Conn., company that has produced licensed apparel for U.S. Open tennis and BMW, has a tighter travel and technology budget. The company sells to pro shops, country clubs and retailers with less refined tracking systems.
"The Internet's a wonderful source of inspiration," said Lance Walsky, Mole Hill's president. Ski slopes are also rich with graphics. Theme parks are a feast. "It's almost like walking through an artist's think tank because it's T-shirt city," Walsky said.
As is true with top fashion houses and other designers, Walsky said, most manufacturers don't care to get too far ahead of the pack, preferring to tweak in half steps each season. "If black is the color, everybody's doing black," he said.
While D'Aversa-Williams hasn't been too impressed with the industry's ability to spot trends, she has noticed better inventory control. Supply levels are showing a recovery from a few years ago, when a crowded field of licensees drove the industry into near doldrums.
One forecast seems safe: Retro isn't ready to retire. "I think it will definitely go through next year," D'Aversa-Williams said.
A category unto itself, retro will be updated with looks from different eras, experts say.
Hardy notes that hoods are on the hot side of their cycle, and pro athletes have prompted a shift from curved to flat-billed caps. "Don't laugh, but the butt prints are coming back," Hardy said of the slogan-bearing shorts.
Next season's sleeper hit? "Like I'm going to tell you," Doran said.
Horan, the publisher of Sporting Goods Intelligence, warns against over-thinking the process. The business is still about keeping a ready supply of blanks in team colors and enough ink to react to the team or player du jour. "That's about all you can really do," he said.
Kim Nilsen writes for Triangle Business Journal in Raleigh.
