Confetti falls as the Villanova Wildcats celebrate defeating the Michigan Wolverines during the 2018 NCAA Basketball Tournament National Championship. (Photo by Chris Covatta/Getty Images)
The month-long NCAA March Madness tournament kicking off Tuesday is expected to attract billions of dollars in both legal and illegal wagers.
The American Gaming Association, the leading national trade group representing the U.S. casino industry, released a study Monday predicting that as many as 47 million Americans would wager a collective $8.5 billion on March Madness.
That shakes out to one in every five adults who are expected to place a bet during the college basketball tournament, according to the AGA. The study was commissioned by the AGA and conducted by global survey company Morning Consult, which polled 11,000 U.S. adults during the first week of March.
More than half of the wagered funds—$4.6 billion—will be placed on behalf of 149 million brackets picked by more than 40 million people. Nearly 18 million people will wager $3.9 billion at a casino, with a bookie, through a mobile or online sportsbook, or with friends, according to the AGA. The AGA estimates cover both legal and illegal sports bets. Of the 18 million people, just 4.1 million are expected to place those bets at a casino sportsbook or using a legal app, while 2.4 million are expected to place illegal bets with a bookie. An additional 5.2 million are expected to bet online, many at illegal offshore sites.
“During this year’s tournament—the first in post-PASPA America—sports fans are expected to bet 40 percent more than they did on this year’s Super Bowl,” said AGA CEO Bill Miller, in a statement.
March Madness is already one of the most bet-on tournaments in all of U.S. sports, but this year’s tournament comes 10 months after the Supreme Court abolished a federal ban on sports betting, paving the way for legalization. Sports betting is now legal in eight states, with another 23 considering paths to legalization, according to the AGA.
“Unlike any other sporting event in the country, March Madness attracts millions who fill out brackets, make casual bets with friends or wager at a legal sportsbook, which Americans can now do more than ever before,” said Miller, though he warned that “there’s still work to do to eradicate the vast illegal sports betting market.”
Separately on Monday, Play USA, an online resource for U.S. news, analysis, and research tied to the regulated online gaming space, forecast that $400 million would be placed legally on March Madness. The vast majority of that, $375 million, is expected to be bet in Nevada ($300 million) and New Jersey ($75 million), which have more established betting ecosystems.
“In Nevada, the NCAA Tournament trails only the Super Bowl in popularity for sports bettors and actually generates more bets because of the number of games,” said Dustin Gouker, lead analyst for TheLines.com, which authored the Play USA study.
Nevada was the only full state in which sports betting was legal throughout 2018. The state recorded a record $459 million in sports bets last year, with roughly $300 million of that taking place during the NCAA basketball tournament.
“I am particularly bullish on New Jersey, where the interest in NBA and college basketball betting has been high,” Gouker said. “Basketball has drawn a higher share of wagering in New Jersey than it has in Nevada this season, and that will likely translate well to the NCAA Tournament.”
