Luis Suarez and Diego Godin of Uruguay celebrate victory after knocking Portugal out of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Even in a world of advanced analytics, something as simple as goal data might be able to help predict the next World Cup champion.
Using data from the past five World Cups (France 1998, Japan/South Korea 2002, Germany 2006, South Africa 2010, and Brazil 2014), sports science and analytics company Kitman Labs managed to predict three-quarters of the nations that qualified for the final eight of this year’s tournament.
Interestingly, Kitman found each team’s goal difference during the group stage was an accurate enough yardstick for how far it progressed in the tournament. On average, teams that reached the quarter-finals emerged from the group stage with a goal difference of four or more.
“What if this mother of all footballing spectacles is not an unpredictable as first thought? What if Friday and Saturday’s quarter-final line-up was, in fact, quite predictable?” Kitman wrote in a report. “It’s all about the group stage goal difference.”
This year, six teams finished the group stage with a goal difference of four or more: Russia (+4), Brazil (+4), England (+5), Uruguay (+5), Croatia (+6), and Belgium (+7). All six reached the quarterfinals. The anomalies were France (+2) and Sweden (+3), but both of those teams still had a greater goal difference than the other teams they faced in the round of 16.
Using the same reasoning to determine which teams will reach the semifinals, Kitman Labs predicts that those with a higher group stage goal difference will win again. This suggests that Uruguay will shock France and face Belgium, which, according to the data, will stun Brazil. Croatia, meanwhile, is predicted to beat Russia and play England, which will overcome Sweden. So the final four will be Belgium v. Uruguay, and Croatia v. England.
“All four teams finished with a group stage goal difference of at least plus five, which matches the average of the previous five World Cup winners, but it is teams who conceded fewer times that, statistically speaking, enjoy the most success,” wrote Kitman.
What happens next depends first on how well those predictions hold for the quarterfinals.
