San Diego voters will go to the polls Tuesday to cast
their ballot on Proposition C (Prop C), a referendum
earmarking $225M in future hotel tax revenues toward the
financing of a proposed $411M ballpark plan for the Padres.
The latest poll numbers released last week showed Prop C
leading by 30% with a small number (9%) still undecided.
The Padres' World Series appearance only helped their cause
and ballpark opponent Strike Three on Prop C (STOP C) co-
Chair Diane Dixon admitted that "'baseball fever' being at a
high pitch in San Diego may sway people to the affirmative
side." San Diego State Political Science Professor Dr. Ed
Heck told THE DAILY: "I would think it's going to be very
close and that if it passes, it will be because the Padres
got to the World Series this year."
GOTV EFFORT: Campaign consultant Tom Sheppard of "Yes
on C" said his group has targeted their get-out-the-vote
efforts toward their strongest supporters, males under 35.
With this demo the least likely to turn out in an off-year
election, Sheppard said, "We have sent absentee ballot
applications to every registered voter who's a male under
the age of 35." Yes on C is also targeting women, the
largest group of "persuadables," and older voters in its TV
and radio campaigns. Dixon admitted the STOP C campaign has
been forced to rely on free media to get their message out,
being outspent 708 to 1 by Prop C. Dixon: "We are going
directly to the voters -- going to forums, to street fairs
and doing a lot through the Internet." Dixon added that the
local TV media "have come to see us as a very credible
opponent. They will usually give us equal response time. So
we are getting some free media, certainly not to the extent
that the Padres do, but at least enough to get our message
out. We've probably had the most difficulty with radio.
Most of the radio stations have shut us out completely."
WHAT'S THE MESSAGE? With its "More Than A Ballpark" tag
featured predominately in its pro-ballpark ads, Sheppard
said that Yes on C is stressing redevelopment and
revitalization in downtown San Diego, with "no new taxes"
involved in building the park. Dixon said that STOP C has
stressed the various city programs lacking proper funding --
"Ballpark, Thanks Have One. Library, Sure Could Use One" --
an inferior site for the ballpark and the fact that a new
facility will mean less affordable seats for Padres games.
TURNOUT KEY: SDSU Professor Heck said the presence of a
ballpark measure could lead to a small bump up in turnout on
Tuesday: "A small percentage of baseball enthusiasts who
essentially are voting for baseball and the Padres probably
will show up who wouldn't otherwise. As to whether the
opposition can stimulate some typical non-voters to show up
to vote against it, my guess is no." Dixon said if turnout
is less than 40% of registered voters, "We will have a clear
no vote." But if it skews higher than that, she feels Prop
C will likely pass. National turnout for the off-year
election is expected to be 39% this year (THE DAILY).
LATER THIS WEEK: THE DAILY will continue to focus on
Tuesday's referendums in San Diego and Denver with an
examination of the paid political advertisements (TV, print
and radio) running in both markets. See tomorrow for more.
