Let’s start by stating we love the NFL. Grew up as diehard fans. Held favorite teams close to our hearts and idolized special players. Bought season tickets for multiple teams. Have scores of former students working for various clubs or the league itself. Still plan our winters around the Super Bowl.
Additionally, it’s not hard stating the NFL is the world’s biggest, most financially successful league and consistently provides little reason to doubt the next decade will see anything but increases for NFL valuations. The assets will appreciate and it’s no surprise the NFL’s owners have set $25 billion (in revenue) as a realistic league goal.
The NFL is king of the hill. The gorilla in the room. The sport entertainment property of global envy. The bomb. The list of overused cliches could go on.
Still, when we look back at Philip Kotler and Ravi Singh’s legendary scholarship on “marketing warfare,” we sense (and could even predict) Fortress NFL will soon face an attack of unimaginable proportions. Not that big brands haven’t faced this issue before. Think Oldsmobile, Yahoo, Dell and Kodak to name a few.
As we approach 2024, the NFL is not only dealing with an ever-growing frontal assault from the NBA (more global and more line extensions via the WNBA, G League, 2K League and Basketball Africa League) but the “Shield” (an insider nickname for the league’s logo) is also the target of the six global soccer competitions: UEFA Champions League, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. All attacking in conjunction with the 2026 FIFA World Cup landing in North America three years from now.
Then, we throw into the mix the never-ending desire of domestic startup leagues (USFL, XFL, UFL, Fan Controlled Football) or the beachhead invasions of foreign football codes (i.e., Premier League, CFL, Australia’s National Rugby League, which is bringing four NRL teams to open their season in Las Vegas next year) consistently blasting away at the NFL’s back gates. It’s easy suggesting the NFL’s castle is surrounded.
The league has done an exceptional job at leveraging esports (EA’s Madden), gambling, and fantasy to its asset base, but setting aside the NBA’s capacity to deliver exciting competition with athletes drawn from all over the world, let’s detail why the NFL could, in the next two decades, abandon its castle on the hill, leaving the big fort to the aggregated forces of European football.
1. North America is saturated. Like many market leaders, the NFL has mastered Canada and the U.S. It is loved, watched, followed, and fanned by many. There may be an opportunity to grow some, but market penetration growth may be modest at best.
2. Soccer is global to the extreme, and Europe is its heartland with fans across the globe. The FIFA World Cup, Women’s World Cup and U23 at the Olympic Games, and continental mega-events like the Euro, are tent poles consistently chipping away at the Super Bowl’s legendary stature. The runway to grow these other “megas” is very big.
3. The largest consumer markets of the world — China, India, and Indonesia — are far more likely to adopt soccer than the NFL. As a background point, these are the first, second, and fourth most populated countries on Earth. The United States is No. 3. Failure to meaningfully enter these markets eliminates nearly 40% of the world’s population.
4. There are 10 other countries with more than 100 million people, most of whom prefer soccer by a large margin over gridiron football: Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, Japan, Ethiopia, Philippines and Egypt. The NFL knows this and can’t be everything to everybody, but it also cannot stop those countries from supplying players, coaches and fans to top soccer leagues.
5. Discussing the cost of American football gear (helmets, shoulder pads, etc.) is a tired conversation but always legitimate. This may explain why the NFL is working diligently to advance the value of flag football in countries like Australia, where physical activity for children is valued, or in nations where schools still require physical education. Said another way, education may not be the NFL’s core business but exporting NFL Flag may provide the league with ways to skirmish with soccer.
6. Virtual reality sport is not yet a “thing,” but if the NFL is slow to embrace digitized gaming, they will miss out on growth strategies such as new product development or diversification. In both cases, the NFL in VR could counterattack its competition globally, eliminate the contact sport issue of physical injuries (including concussions) and set the contemporary bar for youth technology engagement. VR isn’t mainstream yet but failing to develop American football in this space eliminates a first-mover benefit.
Will American readers believe us if we suggest the NFL is under attack? Maybe. It’s a bit far-fetched when the stadiums are sold out and the TV/streaming rights fees stretch well into the billions. Nonetheless, if the NFL’s “generals” aren’t moving battalions into unfortified sectors, the “enemy” may breach one of the league’s many flanks.
To that end, we’d suggest the NFL not let anyone on watch fall asleep in the turrets.
Rick Burton is the David B. Falk Professor of Sport Management at Syracuse University and COO of Playbk Sports. Norm O’Reilly is the dean of the University of Maine’s Graduate School of Business and partner at the T1 Agency. An updated version of their popular book, “Business the NHL Way: Lessons from the Fastest Game on Ice,” will be published this fall by the University of Toronto Press.
Questions about OPED guidelines or letters to the editor? Email editor Jake Kyler at jkyler@sportsbusinessjournal.com
