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Markets: Seattle

Recent movement could make Seattle’s KeyArena desirable for a run at another major league team.
Photo by: AP IMAGES
SEATTLE
 
Income profile (annual):
Household median: $75,331
Household, 60th percentile: $92,258
Household, 80th percentile: $142,311
Median, family of four: $109,733
Discretionary, family of four (rank): $37,459 (3rd)

MSA population (rank): 3.73 million (15th)
Since 2010: +8 percent
Major pro team: Mariners, Seahawks, Sounders
Nearest teams: NHL: Vancouver Canucks (142 miles); NBA: Portland Trail Blazers (174 miles)
TV teams: Trail Blazers; NHL from Canada via CBC-owned station in Vancouver
TV households (rank): 1.77 million (14th)
Metro GDP (rank): $313.7 billion (12th)
Fortune 1000 HQs (rank): 15 (17th)
Employment profile: Not surprisingly, the home of Microsoft and Amazon has almost 2 1/2 times the concentration of computer and mathematics jobs as other markets, as well as a 70 percent higher concentration of engineering and architecture jobs and 39 percent higher concentration of business and financial operations jobs. The MSA also over-indexes by more than 30 percent in arts, design, entertainment, sports and media, as well as life, physical and social science occupations.
Places to play: The Seattle SuperSonics left town in 2008, deeming KeyArena insufficient. Now 54 years old, it remains the only building in the market large enough for a major pro team.
— Bill King

Appraisal

Seattle lost its NBA team because it wouldn’t fund a new arena in 2008. It likely would rise to the top of the NHL’s expansion list tomorrow if it were to commit to building one, or sufficiently renovating KeyArena, the Sonics’ former home.

But despite fits and spasms of interest and support, no one has mastered the political calculus to make it happen. The most recent City Council vote involving the long-discussed SoDo arena project, now spearheaded by hedge fund manager and NBA team suitor Chris Hansen, went 5-4 against. A few days later, Hansen offered to proceed with the project without public funding. About that same time, it was revealed that the city was talking to AEG and Tim Leiweke’s new Oak View Group about renovations to KeyArena.

Without a suitable arena, the upside of the market is functionally irrelevant. Still, that upside is clear.

Seattle’s metro GDP is comfortably within that of the four-team markets. Household income is relatively high, with discretionary income for families of four ranking third among all markets. The TV market and Fortune 1000 numbers are shy of what is typical for four teams, but just barely. The population of the MSA is 18 percent short of the median for four-team markets, but it wouldn’t be the lowest. Minneapolis-St. Paul, which will have five teams when MLS expands there, and Denver, which already has five teams, both have fewer people than Seattle.

You can see why the NHL might be hopeful about the potential of a market that supported franchises in baseball, basketball and football for decades. But without a new, or vastly improved, arena, that potential will remain that and nothing more.

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