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On The Ground in Rio

NBC ratings fall short of optimism

About two weeks before the opening ceremony in Rio, Comcast Chairman and CEO Brian Roberts predicted that NBC’s prime-time performance for the Summer Games would produce “the largest audience in television history.”

Speaking from 30 Rock’s famed Studio 8H (the home of “Saturday Night Live”), Roberts’ confidence was echoed by others in the Comcast/NBC family. NBCUniversal CEO Steve Burke spoke of how he expected NBC’s extensive streaming plans to increase prime-time viewership on the broadcast network. NBC Sports Group Chairman Mark Lazarus sounded similar themes, based on results he had seen from London.

Together, it signaled a bullish optimism driven by a friendly time zone, proven Olympic stars like Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt, and months of promotional hype.

Rio produced stars like Laurie Hernandez, with NBC’s Bob Costas
Photo by: PAUL DRINKWATER / NBC
But it proved too much to achieve.

From the start of the Games, NBC’s ratings took an unexpected turn. The broadcast network’s prime-time rating for Rio’s first 12 days dropped a surprising 18 percent compared with London’s first 12 days in 2012. Even when adding cable and streaming numbers to Rio’s ratings, NBC’s prime-time performance is off nearly double digits from 2012.

The disconnect between Rio’s ratings expectations and performance has led to many questions but few answers.

“We thought we’d be in that neighborhood [of London], if not up a little bit,” Lazarus said last week via telephone from NBC’s compound in Rio. “Do we wish it weren’t so? Of course we do. We wish it were up. We fight every day to try to create programming that will be up.”

NBC’s executives hardly were going out on a limb with their predictions. Prior to the Games, conventional wisdom held that Rio’s ratings would skyrocket in the U.S., especially considering Rio’s time zone is close enough to the East Coast that much of NBC’s prime time would feature live events. Live events typically generate higher ratings.

Olympics Total Audience Delivery

Day Rio 2016 London 2012*
First Saturday 23.5 28.7
First Sunday 31.8 36.0
First Monday 31.5 31.6
First Tuesday 36.1 38.7
First Wednesday 28.6 30.8
First Thursday 33.0 36.8
Second Friday 26.0 28.5
Second Saturday 26.8 28.0
Second Sunday 28.1 31.3
Second Monday 25.5 26.6
Second Tuesday 25.6 30.1

Note: In millions; Total Audience Delivery encompasses viewers on NBC, NBCSN, Bravo and digital.
* The 2012 London Olympics had no simultaneous live streaming and no competing prime-time Olympic cable coverage.
Source: NBC Sports Group


But network executives were forced to play catch-up right out of the gate. Viewership for the opening ceremony was down a massive 35 percent from four years earlier in London — a rough start that proved too difficult to make up. While ratings bounced back, they never fully recovered.

“Leading up to these Olympic Games, we heard often about how advantageous the Games going to South America would be, especially given the similar time zones,” said Dave Mingey, founding partner of GlideSlope, a firm that advises brands like Procter & Gamble, McDonald’s and Citi. “That made a lot of us very excited. I am baffled by the ratings. I am surprised that we’re not seeing more impressive numbers from the broadcast coverage.”

Executives have plenty of theories for why the numbers are down, from the pre-Olympic reporting of Rio’s problems to NBC’s decision to run live prime-time events on its cable channels opposite its broadcast show. Lazarus said the nightly cable and streaming coverage adds between 7 and 10 percent to NBC’s prime-time audience — a significant number, but not enough to reach London’s ratings.

Despite lower-than-expected broadcast ratings, Lazarus emphasized that the Rio Games would be the most profitable Olympics NBC has produced — a figure that will be appreciated in Comcast’s Philadelphia headquarters.
Cable channels like NBC Sports Network and Bravo have exceeded expectations, and streaming numbers have been through the roof. The “Today” show and “NBC Nightly News” have registered huge ratings gains during the Rio Games — NBC unquestionably commanded two weeks of national viewing.

All the hand-wringing over NBC’s prime-time performance does not hide the fact that the Olympics are a massive television property that produces viewership that dwarfs other sports leagues and dominates TV for two weeks in the summer. Eight nights of the Rio Olympics were among the 20 most-viewed sports telecasts so far this year. Aug. 15 marked the 50th straight Olympic night that has won prime time — you have to go back to day 14 of the 2010 Vancouver Games to find a night the Olympics came in second to another program. Last Friday night was set up to be the 115th straight night that the Summer Olympics won prime time — a streak that dates back to the 1988 closing ceremony in Seoul.

Media executives said Rio’s ratings drop-off mirrors a TV industry trend of declining viewership. NBC executives pointed out that only two of 11 shows still on air since the London Olympics have posted viewer gains during that time: “Sunday Night Football” and “The Big Bang Theory.”

The network — and many observers — still believe in the strength of Olympic programming.

“It’s hard to compare any media from 2012 to 2016 because viewing habits change,” said former Coke marketing executive Scott McCune. “My sense is that there is still a big audience. I’ve been spending maybe a third of the time on a mobile device. I think it has more to do with consumer habits than the content.”

Still, it’s the drop-off in broadcast prime time that has drawn the most attention. As a result of not hitting its ratings guarantee — believed to be a 17.5 (a mark NBC had beaten only three times through last Tuesday) — NBC has had to give make-goods to advertisers. Lazarus said all the make-goods were delivered in other Olympic programming and every advertiser will leave Rio “whole.”

“Every advertiser will come away from [the Olympics] having exactly, if not more, than the audiences we promised them,” Lazarus said. “We sold $35 million of incremental advertising since we started the Games, which should tell you how comfortable we are with our position with our advertisers. We wouldn’t be selling more if we owed people things. … We wrote another $1 million of business [Tuesday].”

Current advertisers are not complaining. Even with the ratings shortfall, they still are seduced by the Olympics’ mass audience. Plus, they have been mollified by NBC’s make-good situation. GlideSlope’s Mingey, for example, said he has heard no complaints from Olympic sponsors that have bought into the Games.

“Audience size is important and we are monitoring performance daily with NBC,” said Optimum Sports Managing Director Jeremy Carey, who bought ad time for clients like Dick’s Sporting Goods and McDonald’s. “It can make things challenging when clients have nightly performance goals, but from a holistic standpoint we feel good about our ability to make good all of our deals. The clients were concerned about the performance, but I stop short of saying any of them were unhappy.”

Still, the declining audience could cause some advertisers to rethink advertising plans around the Olympics, according to at least one former ad buyer.

“If I had a TV budget, I’m willing to participate in the Olympics, but the days of spending $35 million in the broadcast to be the only beer in it are over,” said Tony Ponturo, former vice president of global media and sports marketing for Anheuser-Busch, suggesting that the amount of negative stories around the Games has tarnished the Olympics’ brand.

Going forward, NBC will have plenty of time to analyze what the new normal is for Olympic viewing, as it is tied to the Games through 2032.

“We know we’ve got a hit on our hands,” Lazarus said. “Audiences are there. We will have a successful economic Games. That’s not only because big audiences are with us, they’re getting it on all platforms, and we’re satisfying consumer demand.”

INSIDE THE RIO GAMES ON TV

Prime-Time Olympic Ratings

  2016 Rio Olympics 2012 London Olympics  
Night Day Rating No. of viewers (000) Rating No. of viewers (000) Rating change Viewership change
1* Friday 13.9 26,488 21.0 40,651 -34% -35%
2 Saturday 11.4 20,633 15.8 28,715 -28% -28%
3 Sunday 16.1 29,779 19.8 36,047 -19% -17%
4 Monday 16.4 28,861 18.0 31,582 -9% -9%
5 Tuesday 18.9 33,440 21.8 38,719 -13% -14%
6 Wednesday 15.1 26,447 17.9 30,804 -16% -14%
7 Thursday 17.8 31,215 21.1 36,799 -16% -15%
8 Friday 13.7 24,019 16.2 28,508 -15% -16%
9 Saturday 14.2 25,524 15.9 27,964 -11% -9%
10 Sunday 14.9 26,749 17.5 31,262 -14% -14%
11 Monday 14.1 24,330 15.8 28,700 -11% -15%
12 Tuesday 14.3 24,100 17.6 31,200 -19% -23%
12-night average 15.2 27,741 18.5 33,640 -18% -18%

* Opening ceremony
Note: All charts as of press time on Thursday, Aug. 18.
Source: NBC Sports Group
2016 Most-Viewed Sporting Telecasts

Rank Telecast Date Network Rating Viewership avg. (000)
1 Super Bowl 50: Broncos-Panthers Feb. 7 CBS 46.6 111,864
2 AFC Championship: Broncos-Patriots Jan. 24 CBS 29.3 53,300
3 NFC Championship: Panthers-Cardinals Jan. 24 Fox 24.1 45,739
4 AFC Divisional Playoff: Broncos-Steelers Jan. 17 CBS 23.6 42,953
5 NFC Wild Card: Redskins-Packers Jan. 10 Fox 21.8 38,800
6 NFC Divisional Playoff: Panthers-Seahawks Jan. 17 Fox 21.1 36,683
7 NFC Wild Card: Seahawks-Vikings Jan. 10 NBC 21.0 35,300
8 NFC Divisional Playoff: Cardinals-Packers Jan. 16 NBC 18.8 33,732
9 Rio Olympics: Night 5 Aug. 9 NBC 18.9 33,440
10 AFC Divisional Playoff: Chiefs-Patriots Jan. 16 CBS 18.1 31,495
11 AFC Wild Card: Steelers-Bengals Jan. 9 CBS 17.5 31,226
12 Rio Olympics: Night 7 Aug. 11 NBC 17.8 31,215
13 NBA Finals: Cavs-Warriors: Game 7 June 19 ABC 15.8 31,018
14 Rio Olympics: Night 3 Aug. 7 NBC 16.1 29,779
15 Rio Olympics: Night 4 Aug. 8 NBC 16.4 28,861
16 Rio Olympics: Night 10 Aug. 14 NBC 14.9 26,749
17 Rio opening ceremony Aug. 5 NBC 13.9 26,488
18 Rio Olympics: Night 6 Aug. 10 NBC 15.1 26,447
19 CFP National Champ.: Alabama-Clemson Jan. 11 ESPN 14.7 25,667
20 Rio Olympics: Night 9 Aug. 13 NBC 14.2 25,524

Source: NBC Sports Group

Competition Drops

Olympic programming is having a negative effect on other sports networks.

From Aug. 8-12 2015

Telecast Network 2015 viewership 2016 viewership % change
SportsCenter 6 pm ESPN 466,000 330,000 -29%
PTI ESPN 798,000 648,000 -19%
Highly Questionable ESPN2 323,000 294,000 -9%

Source: SportsBusiness Journal research


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