A confidential report sent to FIFA members "claimed that World Cup revenues will increase" by about $1B "if the tournament is expanded to 48 teams," according to Martyn Ziegler of the LONDON TIMES. The 65-page document contains a "detailed financial analysis that forecasts revenues" in '26 being $6.5B "if there are 16 groups of three teams in the World Cup," compared with $5.5B for next year's tournament with 32 teams in Russia. Although the costs of staging a larger tournament would also increase, "FIFA would make a surplus" of $4.2B instead of $3.5B. FIFA council members "look certain to agree to the expanded format at a meeting in Zurich" on Tuesday. The report "does contain a warning" that FIFA "should make the decision on sporting rather than commercial reasons, but the financial rewards on offer appear to be the final persuading factor for the council members, most of whom are under pressure to secure more qualification spots for their confederations." The report also recommends staging matches at times "that are convenient for major markets, regardless of the time zone in the host market, which would offer the greatest potential viewership," to maximize income (LONDON TIMES, 1/9). The BBC reported "there are five options world football's governing body will consider:"
- A 48-team World Cup consisting of 16 groups of three, with the top two sides qualifying for a last-32 knockout stage (80 games in total).
- Another 48-team version consisting of a 32-team, one-game knockout round, with the winners joining 16 already-qualified teams (80 games -- 16 in preliminary and 64 in the main tournament).
- Expanding it to 40 teams, with 10 groups of four and only six group runners-up advancing (76 games).
- A 40-team tournament with eight groups of five (88 games).
- Keeping the World Cup at its present size of 32 teams (64 games) (BBC, 1/9).
ESPN FC's Alejandro Moreno reported FIFA is "most likely expanding the World Cup to 48 teams." Moreno said, "It gives opportunities to countries like ours. So selfishly, we would say, 'Alright,' but big picture this is not the way either of us would like to see our countries make it into the World Cup." ESPN's Shaka Hislop said, "It devalues the tournament and there are better ways to be more inclusive and that is in restructuring qualifying campaigns." ESPN's Dan Thomas added, "This is all politics" and FIFA President Gianni Infantino "wanting votes." Thomas: "Of course doing the math, there's going to be more games, more tickets at the gate, more money, more TV rights. FIFA is just going to be rolling in it." Moreno said, "We understand that this is why things are happening" but "not only does it devalue the tournament, it devalues the qualification processes." Moreno: "Yes, it's FIFA trying to make some more money and when they sell it as 'We're just trying to grow the game,' that's when people have to take a step back and understand what the real situation is." Hislop said as, "much as you can understand more money should mean more money in terms of growing the game, I'm not sure that FIFA is doing a great job right now with the money" they currently earn ("ESPN FC," ESPNews, 1/9).
BUNDESLIGA OFFICIALS WEIGH IN: DEUTSCHE WELLE reported the Bundesliga is "certain" of one thing: "World Cup expansion is unnecessary and will only cause problems." Bayern Munich and European Club Association Chair Karl-Heinz Rummenigge said, "A World Cup with 48 teams is a wrong signal. Only political reasons, and not sport, are being taken into account here. I can't understand why a successful format with 32 teams, which has proven successful in every aspect with the fans, is to be replaced." Schalke Sporting Dir Christian Heidl said, "I don't see the appeal of either option. I cannot recall Mr. Infantino ever consulting the clubs who will provide and pay the players involved in the World Cup." It is an opinion "shared by many in Germany's top-flight." Hoffenheim Dir of Football Alexander Rosen "also feels the World Cup is fine as it is." Rosen said, "We don't need to debate the fact that there are no sporting reasons for this decision." Bayer Leverkusen Sporting Dir Rudi Völler, himself a World Cup winner as a player in '90, "appears resigned to the fact that expansion will happen." However, he pleaded for the "lesser of two evils," meaning a limit of 40 teams (DW, 1/9).
LOW EXPECTATIONS: In London, Charles Sale reported Europe will "have to accept a smaller percentage of places at the extended World Cup" from '26. Strong support from the other confederations means Infantino's "election manifesto pledge for a bigger competition will be voted through at the FIFA Council meeting in Zurich on Tuesday, whatever UEFA's stance." The number of spots for each confederation will not be officially decided at the meeting. But "the best result for UEFA will be a promise of 16" -- in return for backing the 48-strong finals. Even that guarantee "would mean only a third of the teams coming from UEFA," compared to 14 out of 32 finalists (44%) at Russia 2018 (DAILY MAIL, 1/5).
