Survey Shows NFL Ad Buyers Believe Fewer People Will Watch Commercials This Year

A survey of commercial-ratings projections for the '17-18 broadcast-network season found that ad buyers "believe fewer people than last season will watch commercials during such primetime stalwarts as NBC’s 'Sunday Night Football' and the 'Thursday Night Football' broadcasts on both NBC and CBS," according to Brian Steinberg of VARIETY. To be sure, the games "remain TV’s top draw, with higher ratings expected for football than almost anything else on next season’s grid." But NFL games are "proving just as vulnerable to audience erosion as their scripted counterparts." Since May '07, sponsors and ad buyers have "made the number of viewers who watch a particular show within three days’ of its on-air debut -- and don’t skip through the ads -- as the basis for many of their commercial deals." A new supply of Thursday-night games on broadcast has "made more of the sport available to a wider audience." The Richards Group Brand Media Team Leader Ira Berger said, “Straight up, I believe the NFL has peaked and there too many games being broadcast." Steinberg noted C3 projections, which stands for commercial ratings plus three, should "not be taken as gospel." The bulk of football ad pacts are "based on live ratings, owing to the fact that only a sliver of the games’ audience time-shifts, though some buyers suggested 'C3' is used in some agreements. " A source said, “That’s all a negotiation." And there is "more to confuse the issue: Buyers said some football advertisers are considering use of so-called 'out of home' ratings that measure viewership of games in bars, hotels and offices, among other places" (VARIETY.com, 8/16).