Nielsen on Friday said that it will not revise data that showed ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU for November lost more than 600,000 homes from its distribution footprint last month. Nielsen originally released the subscriber numbers late last month, but pulled them last weekend after ESPN complained that the report represented a "dramatic, unexplainable variation over prior months’ reporting" and accused Nielsen of "demonstrated failures over the years to accurately provide subscriber data.” With the news that Nielsen is standing behind its report, ESPN in a statement said, "This most recent snapshot from Nielsen is a historic anomaly for the industry and inconsistent with much more moderated trends observed by other respected third party analysts. It also does not measure DMVPDs (Digital Multi-Channel Video Programming Distributors, like SlingTV or Playstation Vue) and other new distributors and we hope to work with Nielsen to capture this growing market in future reports" (John Ourand, Staff Writer). CABLEFAX DAILY notes ESPN "wasn't alone" in its subscriber losses, as TBS lost 558,000 subscribers over the same period, USA Network lost 669,000 and Fox News lost 571,000 (CABLEFAX DAILY, 11/7). Pivotal Research Senior Analyst for Advertising, Media & Internet Brian Wieser noted that November estimates "show household declines for all but 37 of the 119 networks Nielsen measures" (DEADLINE.com, 11/4).
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DISTRIBUTION CHANGES FOR SELECT CABLE SPORTS NETS IN NOVEMBER
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CABLE SPORTS NET
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OCTOBER HOMES
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NOVEMBER HOMES
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MONTHLY CHANGE
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NBA TV
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53,805,000
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53,072,000
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-733,000
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NBCSN
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84,522,000
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83,817,000
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-705,000
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ESPNU
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71,200,000
|
70,525,000
|
-675,000
|
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ESPN
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89,577,000
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88,956,000
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-621,000
|
|
ESPN2
|
89,485,000
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88,878,000
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-607,000
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Golf Channel
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75,978,000
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75,378,000
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-600,000
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FS2
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51,399,000
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50,808,000
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-591,000
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MLB Network
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66,769,000
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66,254,000
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-515,000
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FS1
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85,971,000
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85,616,000
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-355,000
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beIN Sports
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23,806,000
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23,542,000
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-264,000
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Fox Deportes
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22,157,000
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21,906,000
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-251,000
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NFL Network
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71,659,000
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71,660,000
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+1,000
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beIN Sports Español
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18,162,000
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18,358,000
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+196,000
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HEAD SCRATCHER: Leichtman Research Group President & Principal Analyst Bruce Leichtman said that Nielsen's numbers "make absolutely no sense" given that Q3 is shaping up to be an "okay quarter" and there has never been a Q4 where the industry has experienced an overall subscriber decline. Leichtman: "It is such a glaring aberration" (
WALL STREET JOURNAL, 11/7).
AFFECTING THE BOTTOM LINE? THE STREET's Leon Lazaroff noted it is likely Disney Chair & CEO Bob Iger will have "further comment to make on the controversy" when the company reports its Q3 earnings on Thursday. ESPN has "never made its actual subscriber number public, choosing to allow Nielsen to serve as the third party of record to help set advertising rates." When Iger said in August '15 that ESPN had "lost about 7 million subscribers over the previous two years, Disney's stock price tumbled." But ESPN's subscriber total has been "slipping as pay-TV operators create smaller packages that don't include a channel that is the most expensive to carry." Total subscribers at ESPN have "dropped below 90 million for the first time in a decade even as SlingTV's customer base has reached 1 million subscribers" (THESTREET.com, 11/4). VARIETY's Oriana Schwindt noted Nielsen estimates "do not affect the subscriber fees these networks rake in." ESPN, Viacom and Time Warner "don't get paid based on these estimates; they are paid either a per-subscriber fee or a wholesale sum" (VARIETY.com, 11/4).
