College sports is facing an inevitable widening between the Power 5 conferences and everybody else, according to a media panel Thursday at the ’15 IAF Intercollegiate Athletics Forum, and could ultimately produce a split within the NCAA. Six analysts and commentators covering college sports said the recent sweep of dramatic realignment has produced a troubling split in revenue-generating ability. “The gap between the Power 5 and the rest is going to grow,” said ESPN’s Brett McMurphy. “We’re going to see a furthering widening. And, in the long term, it can’t be sustained.” Such revenue disparities manifest themselves not only in media revenues, but also in facility upgrades, coaching salaries, and travel budgets. “We’re describing a bubble, sort of like the economy in 2008,” said CBS' Aaron Taylor. “People are trying to spend beyond their means to keep up with the Joneses, and I think we’re going to hit a breaking point.” Bonnie Bernstein of Campus Insiders countered that divisions between revenue and non-revenue sports present an even more immediate concern. “The chasm I’m worried about isn’t the Power 5 versus the Group of 5,” she said. “It’s the revenue and non-revenue sports. Where’s the money going to non-revenue sports? I worry that the real have-nots, the non-revenue sports, will suffer amid everything we’re talking about with full cost of attendance, coaching salaries, facility upgrades and so forth.” The panel additionally predicted another sweep of conference realignment, and perhaps an expansion of the College Football Playoff to eight teams once the current round of media rights deals expire. “There won’t be a move to eight teams until there’s a real need for new revenue streams,” McMurphy said. “When the university presidents figure out they need another stream, that’s when they will justify expanding the season across two semesters.”
PRO VS. COLLEGE: A vigorous debate on the NBA's one-and-done provision, which forces players to spend a year in college before they can leave for the pros, also broke out. “The current one-and-done is ridiculous,” Bernstein said. “Why are we forcing kids to do this? And we’re wasting a scholarship. If you’re set on going pro, you should go to the D-League and take your chances.” USA Today’s Dan Wolken disagreed, arguing in favor of the increased visibility and revenue those talented players provide schools. “I think one-and-done has made college basketball better, not worse,” he said.
Quick hits:
* Yahoo’s Pat Forde, on the challenge of selling tickets in college football: “A lot of teams, very successful teams, can’t fill their stadium,” he said, citing programs such as Iowa and North Carolina. “It’s a real concern. Are young people going to go?”
* Brad Wolverton of the Chronicle of Higher Education, on the evolution of NCAA President Mark Emmert: “He has become more effective taking a bit of a lesser role and letting the [university] presidents be out in front more.”
