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Leagues and Governing Bodies

Court Documents: Actuaries Estimate One-Third Of NFLers Will Develop Brain Issues

The NFL, which for years "disputed evidence that its players had a high rate of severe brain damage, has stated in federal court documents that it expects nearly a third of retired players to develop long-term cognitive problems and that the conditions are likely to emerge at 'notably younger ages' than in the general population," according to a front-page piece by Ken Belson of the N.Y. TIMES. The findings, released for the first time on Friday, "are a result of data prepared by actuaries hired by the league" and provided to the judge presiding over the settlement between the NFL and 5,000 former players. The findings in the report, prepared by the Segal Group, "are the league’s most unvarnished admission yet" with regard to concussions among its players. The findings also "appear to confirm what scientists have said for years: that playing football increases the risk of developing neurological conditions like chronic traumatic encephalopathy, a degenerative brain disease that can be identified only in an autopsy." Attorney Brad Karp, who is representing the league on this issue, in an e-mail wrote that the actuaries "had based their findings on medical diagnoses reported by the players who sued the league, so the findings were inflated." Karp: "The methodology was purposely designed to err on the side of overestimating possible injuries to ensure that adequate funds would be available to pay all awards, under the then-capped settlement structure. The actuaries' models do not reflect a "prediction of the number of players who will suffer injuries" (N.Y. TIMES, 9/13). ESPN.com's Fainaru & Fainaru-Wada cite the findings as showing that former NFLers between ages 50-59 "develop Alzheimer's disease and dementia at rates 14 to 23 times higher than the general population of the same age range." The rates for players between ages 60-64 "are as much as 35 times the rate of the general population" (ESPN.com, 9/12).

FINANCIAL FALLOUT: BLOOMBERG NEWS' Pearson & McCarty cited a newly released report as stating that the NFL "will have to pay" about $950M to "resolve players’ head-injury claims, based on estimates that fewer than one in five will seek compensation for injuries eligible for cash awards." The analysis done for lead plaintiffs’ lawyers in a suit against the league "found some 3,600 players," about 17% of potential class members, "would get paid." About 15,000 "won’t develop injuries eligible for compensation, while roughly 2,300 former players who have qualifying injuries won’t participate in the program." A report done for the NFL "pegged the actual dollar payout" at $900M (BLOOMBERG NEWS, 9/13).

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