The business storylines to watch in Major League Baseball this season:
Every source I speak with is steely focused on continuing the momentum around the game, especially pertaining to the on-field product. Quicker games, more action and showcasing more athleticism has to continue. The concern is the new rules of 2023 won’t be “new” anymore and the novelty wears off, or players and management adapt and find ways to push the limits. Another critical metric this season is building on last year’s nearly 10% growth in attendance and surpassing 70 million fans once again. That would be a powerful demonstration of the game’s appeal and reach.
PEOPLE, PERSONNEL, OPERATIONS: I read a preview of Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein’s new book, “The Highest Calling,” in which he interviews four of the six living presidents. He’s a smart, sophisticated and serious figure, and that’s what makes his ownership of the Baltimore Orioles so important. The team never really invested in its business side, and Rubenstein can change the narrative for a franchise that has some of the best talent in the American League. … People are watching Noah Garden, MLB’s deputy commissioner of business and media, who is very well-regarded by many team leaders who came up on the business side. They see opportunities for Garden to revamp the league’s marketing, media and revenue operations, and many are curious about how he can grow these departments and the collaboration that will develop among them. His efforts in these areas have the potential to significantly influence the health of the game. … Look to see what impact Netflix will have around the Boston Red Sox and MLB, as the seasonlong docuseries has the capacity to be groundbreaking for a game that has long sought to showcase players and their personalities. There are so many facets to this effort — the Red Sox’s current standing and prospects, the pressure from the New England locales on the organization, the editorial control and storylines. But if successful, this series could unlock some of that marketing potential and star power and be a script other teams would want to follow. … Two other elements are the continued advancement on commercial real estate developments as part of a team’s portfolio and MLB’s Go-Ahead Entry, as the early reviews in the pilot program last year in Philadelphia were very positive and four teams will adopt the technology this year. This is a real advancement in the fan experience and ballpark operations.
THE LESS FUN STUFF: Let’s face it, MLB had a sleepy offseason. Other than the L.A. Dodgers signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the situation surrounding the future of regional sports networks, there was little buzz. The number of solid contributors still not on rosters as the season starts clearly shows a market reaction/correction. Ownership is not comfortable extending themselves when their media revenue is reduced and there is no clear sign if or when it’s going to increase. As was feared, less revenue in the system trickles down to player salaries. The reported discord in the players union circles back to this, as revenue uncertainty affects the free agent market and creates pressure on middle-class players — just look at the situation around third baseman J.D. Davis, who was cut by the Giants and later picked up by the A’s. One can argue those middle-class players are the core of the union and critical to solidarity. I’m sure owners are silently rooting for continued union dissension, as they can survive having $50 million a year less in local revenue with which to compete, but players are going to feel the salary hit much more immediately and directly.
Which leads me to end with this: What is Rob Manfred’s doctrine? He will serve out his term and retire in January 2029. All leaders see great opportunities as they head into a final term, and I’m sure that’s the case with Manfred’s vision for the next five years. There are very specific tactical issues such as participation and interest, ticket prices, improving player profiles, and they are all real. But there also are major issues and themes, and one could make the case it’s his time to go big and bold with expansion, a new media model and, most importantly, a new collective-bargaining agreement. But Manfred (and, of course, the players) will be tasked to lay out a road map for sustainable growth for the game of baseball and MLB. It’s the question I’m asked the most — where does that growth come from? It also shouldn’t surprise anyone if Manfred and management push for more economic certainty (yes, a hard salary cap), as many feel the lack of such cost constraints has suppressed MLB team valuations over the years compared to the NBA and NFL. Bottom line: The next CBA is a not-very-far-off three years away, and I’m sure MLB and the MLBPA are seriously preparing for these negotiations. Some people will tell you that MLB can’t afford a prolonged work stoppage to eventually get a salary cap, but I could point to just as many who will tell you they can’t afford not to.
Abraham Madkour can be reached at amadkour@sportsbusinessjournal.com.
