SBJ Football: NFLPA Vote Could Be Catalyst For New CBA

My father runs the food pantry in my southern Ohio hometown, and they always need more donations. The food pantry right next door is Athens County, which is sitting on a $500,000 largesse thanks to LSU fans who donated after Joe Burrow’s moving Heisman speech on poverty. To my father’s credit, I haven’t heard a hint of institutional envy -- just admiration for the national champion QB.

NFLPA ELECTIONS LOOM OVER CBA TALKS

• March will be the key inflection point that might finally force a deal between the NFL and the NFLPA after months of slow progress bargaining. Here’s why: Owners fear whoever might replace outgoing union President Eric Winston when player reps elect new leadership that month. It could be a hardliner. If there’s no contract by then, at a minimum, momentum will stall as new leaders get up to speed, my sources said. At worst, talks could take a big step backward. For the players, all of the benefits they’ve tentatively agreed to so far wouldn’t come to pass for another year without a deal by March 18, when the next league year starts.
  
  
• Whether it’s posturing or reality, my sources have been sounding the alarm about what happens if new union leadership takes over. “It may throw a wrinkle into the entire process,” one source said. “It’s starting completely over,” another said. Even if new leadership is not inclined to drastically alter the NFLPA’s general position, “once you change leadership in any practical sense, someone’s going to want to put their mark on it.” The owners respect Winston and have a comfort level with him at the table. A fourth said: “Well it’s the devil you know versus the devil you don’t.”
  
  
• Winston cannot serve another term because he hasn’t been an active player over the last two seasons. It’s not really clear how much the union’s rank-and-file members hunger for change, but last weekend, PFT reported that Chargers T Russell Okung intends to run. Okung is known as a hardliner against an expanded regular season and appears willing to go to a work stoppage.
  
  
• For most of 2019, the media -- including me -- has characterized the talks as productive and likely to get done without the brinksmanship and acrimony of the 2011 deal. But Thursday’s memo to players from Executive Director DeMaurice Smith, and a memo from NFL HQ to teams, belies that narrative. Smith said an agreement remains elusive on big issues like the overall revenue split with players, the rule requiring teams to put guaranteed money in escrow at the time of signing and minimum spending. In its own memo to clubs, the NFL agreed that “a number of important issues remain to be resolved.”
  
  
• Bottom line: Either the uncertainty of new union leadership forces movement on these tough topics in the next six to eight weeks, or this drags on well into the 2020 season, dangerously close to the 2021 expiration.

LENGTHY CAREERS OPTIONAL FOR TOP-EARNING PLAYERS

• Luke Kuechly’s surprise retirement at the age of 28 kicked off a new round of commentary around player safety and concussions, but the most distinctive trait connecting Kuechly with Rob Gronkowski and Andrew Luck -- other stars who recently retired before age 30 -- is money. All three earned healthy salaries fueled by big second contracts, which gave them options that didn’t exist for prior generations of players -- or even more rank-and-file players today.
  
  
  • CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones: "The trend, from my perspective, is not that elite football players en masse are deciding to retire at an early age. The trend is that elite football players with the futures secured are choosing to retire at an early age."
  • SI’s Albert Breer: “Players are getting paid more and doing a better job of managing their money, and are smarter with their finances than they were a generation ago.” 
  • Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd: “It was a great day for football. I’ve said, ‘no hitting until high school, lighten up on the practice, more guaranteed money for pros, and you guys can say bye bye at 30 and have $28 million in the bank.'"
    
    
• But even players who are well-off presumably would stay in the game if they weren’t fearful for their future in a violent sport. While the league has invested $100 million toward addressing head injuries, players still face major risk.
  
  
  • The Ringer’s Kevin Clark: “This is a blow to the sport, quite frankly. … But from [Kuechly's] perspective this was the only decision to make. He’s had multiple recorded concussions. … He played fast and physical. And he thinks that that type of play … is conducive to injury. He couldn’t keep doing it. … The middle of the NFL field is the most dangerous place in sports.”
  • CBS’ Phil Simms: “I’m glad he is retiring. All the concussions and the way he played. … He knew he couldn’t play the way he wanted.”
  • ESPN Radio Seattle's John Clayton: “You have to think concussions played into it. … The body is basically telling him it’s time to get out.” 
    
    
• A small snapshot of Kuechly's popularity in Charlotte?. On Wednesday, locally-based WFNZ-AM booked former teammates Josh Norman, Jon Beason, Johnathan Stewart, Jake Delhomme and former Assistant GM Brandon Beane all within a five-hour period to speak on Kuechly's legacy.

Social media feeds for the Panthers were loaded with Kuechly tributes this week

SUPER BOWL AD CHECK

• We’re just over two weeks out from the Super Bowl and the ad lineup for Fox's telecast is shaping up to look a little different than in years past. The most visible buys thus far are political spots from President Trump and Michael Bloomberg. It’s not known when the ads will air during the game, but they’re sure to be some of the most-talked-about spots. A-B InBev always has several of its brands in the game’s lineup. While its planned four minutes of ad time is down from a near-record spend last year (almost six minutes of commercials), the 2020 spend is more in line with Super Bowls prior to last year. Among the celebs making cameos in ads this year are MC Hammer, Katie Couric, Lilly Singh and Taraji P. Henson.
  
  
• Ad Age's "Marketer's Brief Podcast" addressed the potential fallout from spots that will come from Bloomberg and Trump. E.J. Schultz: "They risk really turning off America, because this is the one time … where we all just put this aside and enjoy the game. … It’s going to dampen the mood in my opinion, and it’ll be interesting to see how brands around the game react to that." Jeanine Poggi: "It doesn’t really seem like a tactic to attract voters, but more just a show of power. … You’re really watching the Super Bowl to be entertained, and a lot of brands especially in recent years have gone much more to the light-hearted, humor side. With this, it sort of forces you to be a part of a political conversation that I think much of the country is trying to avoid."

DIFFERENT FACTORS OF X

• We're less than a month away from the XFL, but not every state is on board with betting on the rebirth of Vince McMahon's league. States like Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Iowa have given the green light, but Delaware has chosen not to allow XFL bets for now. SBJ's Bill King explains why: "Delaware is in a different situation than most states. There aren’t commercial casinos offering sports betting there. William Hill provides oddsmaking services, but it’s the state lottery commission that’s making the call on whether it’s good business to take an XFL bet. In other states, like Nevada, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, for example, you’ll have the sportsbooks going to the gaming commission asking for permission, and they all will want to take bets on the XFL, because it’s going to have broad TV distribution and there will be people who want, or are willing, to bet on it. They may set limits that are lower than those they set for NFL games to protect themselves from the risk of the unknown. But they will want to take those bets."

SPEED READS

• Boulevard Wheat ale was flowing at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The latest NFL alcoholic beverage report from digital analytics company Zoomph tabs the Chiefs as the fan base with the greatest affinity for craft beer, with the Bills and Browns close behind. Other insights? Jets fans are 4.6x more likely to order a hard seltzer than the average NFL fan, while the Rams have the greatest affinity for wine among the 32 fan bases.
  
  
• SBJ's David Broughton crunched some numbers on Super Bowl broadcasting history: Joe Buck has been with Fox since 1994, and has called five Super Bowls. But this year will be his first in Miami when he calls SB LIV at Hard Rock Stadium. Buck's father, Jack Buck, called radio play-by-play for three Miami Super Bowls (XIII in 1979, XXIII in 1989 and XXIX in 1995).
  
  
• It’s been 18 years since the Titans played on Championship Sunday, so the scene in Nashville this weekend should be one for the books. The city’s Convention & Visitors Corp. is throwing a viewing party on Lower Broadway, while the team itself will have two bars hosting official watch parties (The George Jones on 2nd Avenue North and Nashville Underground on Broadway) with the team’s merch trailer mixing between the three.
  
  
• NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is on stage at Wynn Las Vegas today for the annual “Preview Las Vegas” event. Billed as the state’s "largest economic forecasting event" and the "most prestigious business event in southern Nevada,” the day-long session features a 30-minute Q&A between Goodell and Las Vegas Review-Journal Sports Editor Bill Bradley.
  
  
• ICYMI: for the SBJ cover story this week, I shadowed two NFL execs who work for the League Observation Program. It's been our most-popular story all week.

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