SBJ Betting: Stage Finally Set For NFL's Next Big Step

U.K.-based sportsbook Betfair reported accepting more than $500 million in wagers on the slow-to-resolve U.S. presidential election this week. Analysts suggest the global total was at least double that. Gambling being gambling, there will be those who point to that as a lost opportunity for sportsbooks in the U.S., where states have been unanimous in their denial of requests to offer odds on elections.

The long-standing opposition stems from the possibility that someone who can wager on an election might try to influence it. Proponents argue that it’d be best to keep those bets in the legal market, where they’d leave an identifiable trail.

Think that over while you peruse what we have for you below.

COULD NFL HAVE LEAGUE BETTING DEAL IN TIME FOR SUPER BOWL?

• The NFL has been the most deliberate of all U.S. properties in setting a sports betting course, waiting until last season to allow the distribution of its official data to U.S. sportsbooks. It then waited until the spring to clear the way for teams to sell sportsbook sponsorships and until recent months to strike league sponsorship deals with operators outside the country.
  
  
• Still noticeably absent from that list: An official-status deal in the category like those the NBA, NHL and MLB signed with MGM Resorts, and a model by which U.S. sportsbooks can use league and team marks and IP on their apps, likely tied to the use of official data distributed by Sportradar.
  
  
• With sports betting now readily available in four of the seven largest U.S. media markets and 10 teams playing in states that have either opened or legalized -- including recently blessed Baltimore and New Orleans -- the NFL is on the cusp of taking that next step, though what exactly that will look like still is to be determined.
  
  
• “Given our national scale, opening the category makes sense when you have national access to consumers at that scale -- so (when) 40-50% of U.S. fans are able to legally bet in their market,” said Chris Halpin, who as Exec VP and chief strategy & growth officer has worked closely with owners to chart the league’s sports betting path. “We’re seeing the scale of the (leading sportsbooks) build to where they are in all the key markets and actively participating. And now we will decide on the right model and the right timing.”
  
  
• Halpin called the possibility that the NFL, which since June has seen 11 teams sign 18 sportsbook deals, could unveil its first league sponsorship deal in the category in time for the Super Bowl “possible, but hard to say,” in part because of the ever-present uncertainty that has come with COVID.
  
  
• The nation’s most bet on event clearly could provide an attractive marketing opportunity for a sponsor. But the short runway left to get a marketing program in place in time for that, coupled with the further expansion of the map in the next year make it more likely that the 2021 season will be the target.

COLORADO, OREGON, ILLINOIS ALLOW US TO FOLLOW THE MONEY

• We now have a bit more visibility into which sports the new American legal bettor is wagering on thanks to regulators in Colorado, Oregon and Illinois, which each track and release handle by sport and list more than 10 of them -- going well beyond the “other” catch-all that Nevada long has used to encompass all but football, basketball and baseball.
  
  
• The early numbers reveal what that “other” now looks like, driven largely by the adoption of mobile betting, which has freed casual bettors from the captivity of weekend trips to a brick-and-mortar sportsbook. When William Hill oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich broke into the business in 1986, “other” barely generated enough money to pay the light bills between football seasons.
  
  
• “For at least the first 15 years that I was in the business, you had five months to make money, the football months, and for the rest you just held on,” said Bogdanovich, director of U.S. trading for William Hill. “But now, sports betting is at such an all-time high, each day is critical, each week is and each month is. Soccer. Tennis. These 'others' do matter. And they not only bring a significant amount to the bottom line, they bring people to your mobile app or into your sportsbook."
  
  
• Data collected in Illinois and Oregon during the crowded sports calendar of August and September yielded some surprises. Baseball generated considerably more handle than football or basketball in Colorado in September, bringing in $47.1 million to football’s $38.6 million and basketball’s $37.7 million. Baseball ($49.3 million) also beat basketball ($46.8 million) slightly in Illinois in August, the most recent month available from that state.
  
  
• Basketball ($8 million) was the most bet on sport in Oregon in September, beating out football ($7.1 million). Baseball generated $4.1 million for the month.

DO THESE "OTHER" SPORTS MATTER? BET ON IT

• Colorado, Oregon and Illinois reveal similar pecking orders among the “other” sports. In Oregon in September, soccer ranked fourth ($2.1M), followed by tennis ($1.4M) and table tennis ($1.3M). Interestingly, ping-pong bettors on average wagered $63.09 per bet, more than double the $31 average bet placed across sports.
  
  
• Colorado bettors had hockey as the next most popular sport in September ($11.4M), followed by table tennis ($5.4M), tennis ($5.1M), soccer ($4.9M) and golf ($3.2M). That reflected a shuffling of what occurred there in August, when basketball easily was the most bet on ($38M), followed by baseball ($22M). Hockey was a solid third ($13M), followed by table tennis and golf ($4.5M each), soccer ($3.4M), tennis ($2.4M) and MMA ($1.9M).
  
  
• Though September numbers from Illinois weren’t available yet, the state’s story in August is worth reviewing, as it offers a reminder of the connection between betting patterns and the fates of the local teams. Both the Cubs and White Sox were playing meaningful baseball throughout August, while the Bulls were locked out of the NBA bubble. Hockey was the third most bet on sport for the month ($14.8M), followed by soccer ($6.5M), golf ($3.2M) and combat sports ($3.1M).
  
  
• The traditional big three -- football, basketball and baseball -- still hold sway over the “others”, but it’s worth noting that the gap is closing among those three. As for those “others”, hockey had shares of 11% in both Colorado and Illinois in August, making it the only “other” sport to break double-digits in any state.
  
  
• “The 'others' will continue to grow, just because it’s untapped and they’re very interesting,” Bogdanovich said. “With soccer and tennis, we do an incredible amount of business. There are a zillion soccer and tennis matches. If people are bored they may want to eat their sandwich and watch FC Barcelona at lunch. There’s nothing else going on and there are so many (soccer matches). That combination is deadly.”

VOTERS IN MARYLAND, LOUISIANA, SOUTH DAKOTA GIVE A THUMBS UP

• Sports betting bills passed easily in all three states in which it was on the ballot on Tuesday. Two-thirds of voters in Maryland approved a straight up-down referendum, while Louisiana voters said yes to sports betting in 55 of the state’s 64 parishes, including New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Shreveport. Voters in South Dakota approved sports betting for Deadwood casinos.
  
  
• Now, it’s on to regulation and opening, which has proceeded at varying paces in other states that are home to major pro teams. Indiana and Colorado had sportsbook apps up and running in five and six months after passing, respectively. Illinois took nine months to open retail and 14 months to expand beyond a single app from BetRivers.
  
  
• Tennessee, which has no casinos and offers only online sports betting, took 18 months. Michigan passed in December 2019 and still hasn’t opened online. Virginia passed in April and isn’t expected to be up until early next year.
  
  
• With six commercial casinos and three horse tracks, the map in Maryland is straightforward enough that it could be on a faster track. But legislators still have to consider and pass a framework, and regulators will have to consider applications and approve apps. Opening parish-by-parish, Louisiana figures to take longer to get mobile up and running.
  
  
• “The speed at which some of the early states got into market vs. the time it takes now is stark,” said the NFL's Chris Halpin. “With a lot of the states that legalize, but are slow to get there, they don’t have an existing gaming commission or they don’t have an existing infrastructure for managing operators. ... The nuts and bolts are harder to do than anyone thinks from the outside. That’s a key learning. It’s not just snap your fingers.”

SPEED READS

• Filings straggling in from a handful of states in the last week brought the total U.S. handle for September to $2.46 billion, with Illinois still to report. That’s an increase of 26% in like states over August. Illinois almost certainly will push the total beyond $2.6 billion. With the NBA and NHL dropping off the board and fewer MLB games in October, it will be interesting to see whether the total for the month actually dips when reports roll in in the coming two weeks, or that money simply migrates to football and other sports.
  
  
• Online/mobile sports betting officially went live in Tennessee on Nov. 1. Action 24/7, BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel are the state’s first four licensed sportsbooks, with three others -- BetAmerica, William Hill and Wynn -- pending. Tennessee is the first state to “regulate online sportsbooks directly." Meanwhile, local teams are moving fast. The Titans already signed up with BetMGM, while the Grizzlies on Monday reached a multiyear deal with FanDuel.
  
  
• A new sports betting bill had its second reading before the Canadian Parliament this week, the “next step in the decade-long battle to allow single-game betting.” The bill will need to pass three readings, a committee stage and, ultimately, approval from the Senate.
  
  
• U.K.-based Betfair on Wednesday morning said that it had taken in more than $564 million on the U.S. presidential election, making it the company’s “most-bet event” since the 2016 election. A bettor last week wagered about $1.3 million on Joe Biden, which tied for the third-largest bet in the Betfair history. The Betfair election market “will stay live as long as the race appears up for grabs, even if it winds up in front of the Supreme Court.” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said, “Money is still pouring in. The odds are still swinging ever-so-slightly.”

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Something on the sports betting beat catch your eye? Tell us about it. Reach out to either me (bking@sportsbusinessjournal.com), Richard Bush (rbush@sportsbusinessjournal.com) or Austin Karp (akarp@sportsbusinessjournal.com) and we'll share the best of it. Also contributing to this newsletter is Lucas Smith (lsmith@sportsbusinessdaily.com).