Post-COVID Sports Attendance Will Not Recover as Quickly as Post-9/11 

I’ve read various sports business stories in which industry professionals – venue operators, sports architects, advertisers – make the speculative comparison that the post-COVID sports attendance trend will likely mirror what happened in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. (A refresher: there were cancellations and palpable fear for a short time, but that was quickly replaced by crowded stadiums as fans felt more safe and desperately tried to regain some normalcy to their lives.)

This (hopeful) speculation is rose colored and ignores some key factors in play in 2020 that simply didn’t exist or weren’t as impactful in 2001. 

To start with, and I have no intention of belaboring this point, our country then was unified against one perceived enemy (terrorist networks), versus now being nearly exactly split in half in our feelings about … well … just about everything, most importantly whether there is in fact a dangerous virus circulating amongst us.

That means instead of sharing the communal joy of a sporting event as a means of healing as we did back then, this time we’ll be looking around at nearby fans wondering who might have COVID, who took a vaccine, who has been exercising caution in life … and why isn’t that guy wearing his mask? That paranoia isn’t going to suddenly vanish with a vaccine. In fact, that mistrust has become debilitating for many. 

The closer we sit, stand, eat, drink and cheer next to complete strangers, the less convincing the argument is that going to a game is safe. More fans will be cautious when stadiums reopen, a possibility evidenced by the less-than-reduced-capacity crowds at the two NFL games with fans in Week 1.

Conversely, the necessary reaction to the sudden, violent and tragic events of September 11 was crystal clear to all Americans, and as soon as fans felt like security measures were commensurate with the perceived threat, there was a particular ease of reentry into live sports. In fact, the restart of sports became one of the most important rallying cries for Americans to say, “we’re not going to live in fear!”

Another point that supports a different future this time lies in the data itself. 

Prior to 9/11, most major U.S. sports were enjoying an attendance boom, with MLB numbers steadily climbing from the low point of the disastrous 1994 strike and NFL attendance up 15% in the five years prior. That trend is exactly reversed in 2020, with MLB down more than 7% since 2015, NFL attendance at its lowest point since 2004 and even NCAA football attendance hitting a 24-year low in 2019. 

You can argue the reasons why until you’re blue in the face, but the data remain, and the trend was showing no signs of reversing itself prior to the pandemic. To think that fans will suddenly flock back to sports just because they can isn’t founded in logic. Remember, in 2001, the country was trying to collectively tell the world “we’re not scared” in a unified voice. Today, we lack that clear motivation. In fact, staying away from live sports might end up becoming a form of protest for some.

Finally, the economic impact of 9/11 was more concise and swift in its damage. In the fall of 2020, many economists believe we are just now beginning to feel the true economic impact that COVID has wrought. Entire industries – performing arts, sports itself, travel and tourism to name a few – have been decimated, with prospects for recovery heavily dependent on a stimulus package negotiated by a deeply-partisan Congress in the midst of the most important and divisive presidential election campaign in the country’s history.

That frustrating truth introduces another valid question about an attendance recovery: How many fans will spend their quickly evaporating discretionary funds on a potentially unsafe ballgame? 

I’m not optimistic that number is big enough to provide the quick turnaround the sports world so desperately wants. Add to that the fact that many health-risk-averse sports fans will opt to stay in the safety of their homes to watch games. Sprinkle in some mistrust of strangers, and finally a dash of “I did fine without live sports for months,” and it adds up to a very-uncertain future for live attendance figures. The underlying market conditions suggest strongly that a sports attendance “recovery” will be a long and slow process and look very little like post-9/11. 

But that is not without its silver lining. Technological advancements in and adoption of touchless payment systems, concession-ordering and restroom features will be further fast-forwarded into use and will make the experience at a live event cooler and safer. Front offices will be forced to try newer, bolder ideas across every element of their venues – seating, pre- and postgame entertainment, amenities – to continue to attract fans, and that will be a good thing. Eventually, it will become more a source of pride for a team to tout revenue generation and innovation over the number of bodies that come through the turnstile, long seen as the mark of success in many organizations and with the public.

Fans are not going to sprint back to stadiums on the scale they did in 2001, but they’ll return, slowly, and they’ll have a safer, more comfortable and better experience when doing so.

Deron Nardo is principal and president of 4Topps Premium Seating.