Noted Epidemiologist Says Marlins Should Shut Down For Two Weeks

As ramifications from the news that at least 14 Marlins tested positive for COVID-19 continue to ricochet through the sports world, a noted epidemiologist says that the Marlins need to shut down for the next two weeks while they quarantine everyone who was in the club's traveling party to Philadelphia.

"You have over a dozen people in your organization sick with a potentially very serious virus that they could spread around to teammates, staff members or, if you send them back home, to their families," Dr. Zach Binney, an epidemiologist at Oxford College at Emory University, told SBJ. "I think we need to take a moment to deal with this on a human level, not just trying to push forward as business as usual. I guess you can fill in those spots, but I think you can assume every Marlin that was a member of the traveling party is potentially infected right now."

A source within the Marlins, who completed a three-game series against the Phillies on Sunday, said this afternoon that no decisions on next steps for the traveling party have been made yet as the organization awaits more information. The team's game home opener tonight against the Orioles at Marlins Park has been postponed.

It remains to be seen what the next steps are for the Phillies, whose home game tonight against the Yankees has also been postponed. Binney believes that, if MLB wants to be cautious, those within the team’s organization who are deemed as potentially high risk of infection, based on their proximity to any Marlins during the series, should be immediately placed in a five-day probationary quarantine. While he did not believe the Phillies need to shut down for a period of time at this point, he said that just one round of testing today will not be a conclusive indication of which players, if any, could have been infected during the series.

"I don't see any reason why there can't be a completely clean visitor's clubhouse in Philadelphia for the Yankees," Binney said. "What I'm worried about is putting the Phillies out there when some may have the virus. Forget about the opponents, the more you keep the Phillies together, the more chances there are of the virus spreading within the team. The only question that MLB should be asking is: How likely do we think it is that some of the Phillies are infected? If the answer is we think there is a real chance, then quarantine for five days. If you want to think that risk is very, very low then go ahead and play tonight. But just waiting for one round of testing doesn't make any sense to me."

There were encouraging signs throughout MLB's three-week Summer Camp, including a low positivity rate among players who were tested every other day and the smoothing out of early-July testing delays. But executives throughout baseball knew that the real test would arise with the start of the regular season because the 30 clubs are not operating in a bubble environment. Still, Binney said his level of surprise with today's news was "off the charts" because while he envisioned some positive cases, he didn't anticipate the virus "ripping through a clubhouse this quickly."

The baseball world continues to process the gravity of the situation. When asked about his level of concern considering the fact he had heart issues last September, Nationals manager Dave Martinez told reporters, "I'll be honest with you, I'm scared. I really am." Martinez, whose team was set to play in Miami this weekend, also said his overall level of concern went from an eight to a 12 in the wake of the Marlins' news.

Binney said MLB should seriously consider canceling the baseball season if a second, independent outbreak occurs within an organization, especially with a team in the central or western divisions, that has had no contact with the Marlins' or Phillies' organizations. The 60-game schedule calls for teams to only play those within their own divisions and the corresponding division in the opposite league.

However, Dodgers President Stan Kasten told MLB Radio that there has not yet been a discussion about shutting down the season. "My understanding from talking to other teams is that it's supposed to be business as usual at least for every other team," he said.

Binney added, "You developed protocols in good faith, you did the best you could outside of setting up a bubble. Things were looking a little better in this country a month and a half ago. But the truth is, the virus is out of control still in the U.S."