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Massive reset in scheduling will drive new approach in 2021

No one can predict what will happen in the sports world in 2021. One thing is certain: What happens next year will be heavily dependent on what does or doesn’t happen in the latter half of this year. Will the professional leagues finish their seasons, or will they be interrupted by another COVID-19 outbreak? MLB was forced to postpone a number of  games in the first week of its already truncated season after almost half of the Miami Marlins’ roster tested positive. When will fans be permitted to attend games, and if so, how many? Will college football be played in the fall, the spring or not at all? What about college basketball? What about high school sports? The Masters? Will minor league baseball come back? Assuredly, there are more questions than answers — so let’s make some assumptions and see the possibilities and dilemmas that could arise.

Because I’m an optimist, I will start by assuming that the NBA, WNBA and NHL will finish their seasons on time because of their “bubble” approach. I am less hopeful that MLB will complete its season because of the frequency of travel required to do so. I’m hopeful that MLS will be able to resume but it will need to improve on the travel-based approach baseball is trying. I will also assume that the NFL will complete its season — although I feel there is a strong possibility the season could be disrupted and lengthened with the Super Bowl possibly played in early March. College football will be a hybrid with some Power Five teams attempting to play a shortened season of conference-only games with others hoping to play their entire schedule. There will be some non-Power Five schools playing spring football while others abandon the season entirely. There will be a College Football Championship, but I would expect fewer bowl games. 

If all of these scenarios take place, the 2021 sports calendar will be condensed and crowded. This in turn will affect scheduling changes that could become permanent.

With the NBA projecting December 2020 as the start to its next season and the NHL looking at something similar, January through March should look the same as in years past if NCAA basketball is played along with NASCAR and PGA Tour events. April through July is where things will be crowded. MLB will be starting its season, with the NBA, NHL and MLS all in their regular-season schedules. If the 2020 Masters is played this fall as currently scheduled, would it return to its normal April date in 2021?

With everyone playing at the same time it will be a battle for eyeballs as well as a battle for broadcast and streaming schedules, not to mention sponsorship dollars. Sitting in my office having watched MLB games most of each day last week and watching the WNBA opener between Seattle and New York, all of those events going on simultaneously given our current COVID-19-dominated world sounds appealing — but is it practical and sustainable? Is it just too many games in a condensed time frame? 

Content is king in 2020 and will be so for the foreseeable future. Streaming outlets, traditional broadcast networks and pay channels will grow and provide numerous outlets for content. I would assume that rights fees will increase as this pandemic has demonstrated the need for live content. ESPN’s ratings for the July 23 MLB opener between the Yankees and the Nationals set a 10-year high, and I’m going to assume that MLB, MLS, the WNBA, the NHL, the NFL and the PGA Tour will all set viewership records in 2020. The question is: Will this be sustainable? We are, after all, social beings hoping to return to interacting with our friends and the world around us. Could this mean a return to our previous viewing patterns — namely watching portions of games and waiting for the most meaningful games? In my opinion as a sport marketer, the popularity of the NFL is due in large part to the fact that EVERY game is significant in a season of 16 (soon to be 17) games.

I have also been an advocate of less is more and use the term Fenway Principle to describe that phenomenon: The size of Fenway Park keeps both demand and actual attendance high, and prices reflect that demand because of the scarcity of tickets. I have theorized that people, sponsors and broadcasters would pay more for fewer games if those games were more significant and meaningful. In sports such as the NBA with the load management issue, it could also mean stars playing a higher percentage of games and not disappointing viewers and fans. So, what about the following:

MLB — 120 games with play beginning in late April or early May and ending in mid-October.

NBA — 64 games with play beginning Thanksgiving weekend and ending in late June.

NHL — 64 games with play beginning late October or early November and ending in late May or early June

MLS, NASCAR, the NFL, the WNBA, the ATP and WTA tours and college sports would remain as is with the NFL exhibition games possibly being eliminated and replaced by an 18th regular-season game if it is determined there were no detrimental effects to having a season without exhibition games in 2020.

It’s a theory, but one that could define the new normal. As with everything, however, this all depends upon ticket buyers, viewers, streamers and, most of all, the virus.         

Bill Sutton (billsuttonandassociates@gmail.com) is director emeritus of the Vinik Graduate Sport Business Program at USF, dean of Elevate Academy and principal of Bill Sutton & Associates. Follow him on Twitter @Sutton_ImpactU.

Questions about OPED guidelines or letters to the editor? Email editor Jake Kyler at jkyler@sportsbusinessjournal.com

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