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Leagues and Governing Bodies

MLB still facing offseason hurdles

League’s attendance problems are not likely to be helped by another slow free-agent market and an escalating war of words

Major League Baseball is facing ticket sales headwinds for the 2019 season due to the sport’s ongoing labor strife and a free-agent market that after nearly four months of relative quiet is only now beginning to thaw.

The league has not yet been able to render an official prediction on whether it will reverse last year’s 4 percent attendance decline to a 15-year low and a larger trend that has seen drops in five of the last six seasons. That is in part because single-game ticket sales are now just starting in many individual markets.

Dallas Keuchel, the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner, is one of several big-name players still without a new contract.getty images

But MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and others acknowledged that an offseason dominated by public tension between the league and the MLB Players Association due largely to top free agents remaining unsigned has not been beneficial to the sport’s business operations.

“I do think the negative commentary surrounding the game that is not factually supported can have an impact on attendance, assertions about clubs not trying to win and the like,” Manfred said at the recent owners meetings in Orlando. “That’s not helpful.”

On an individual level, many MLB clubs said their initial projections and budgeting for 2019 ticket sales were flat or slightly above last year. But there have been fans reluctant to commit to larger ticket packages, or at all, without knowing where key players were going to land.

“We have had fence sitters for sure, people that said to call once you know something” about key free agents, said Brooks Boyer, Chicago White Sox senior vice president of sales and marketing. The White Sox are tracking ahead of last year’s ticket sales in the wake of a developing youth movement, but lost out in securing top free agent Manny Machado, who last week signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with the San Diego Padres instead.

“Since we didn’t get Manny, there will now be some people who are frustrated, still want our process sped up, and might downgrade their package,” Boyer said. “But we will stick to our plan and will get there.”

MLB attendance, 2014-2018

Year Average Total
2014 30,345 73,739,622
2015 30,349 73,719,340
2016 30,131 73,159,044
2017 29,908 72,678,797
2018 28,659 69,671,272

In recent weeks, Manfred and MLBPA Executive Director Tony Clark have traded several public barbs as disagreement remains over the level of effort each of the 30 clubs is making toward winning. Manfred repeatedly has asserted that each club is making its best effort toward building a winning club but are in different stages of roster development.

Clark, meanwhile, said last week, “We’re operating in an environment in which an increasing number of clubs appear to be making little effort to improve their rosters, compete for a championship or justify the price of a ticket.”

Machado was one of the two marquee free agents of MLB’s 2018-19 offseason. The other is outfielder Bryce Harper, who remained unsigned at press time despite the fact that spring training camps have already opened.

And as a result, those players — and others such as star reliever Craig Kimbrel and former Cy Young Award-winning starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel, both of whom also remain unsigned — have not been used as key parts of offseason marketing and sales efforts, as major free-agent signings historically have been. Boyer said the White Sox developed two promotional campaigns, one including Machado and one without.

“Fans want the surety that they’ll be there,” said Patrick Ryan, co-founder of Eventellect, a Houston-based ticket sales strategy company that works with many MLB clubs.

While the league-level labor strife continues, teams in many instances are looking to focus as much as possible on their own local narratives.

The Texas Rangers, for example, are focusing heavily on the last season of play at Globe Life Park and next year’s move to Globe Life Field. The Cincinnati Reds have an extensive program around the 150th anniversary commemoration of professional baseball, with events, giveaways and throwback uniforms throughout the season. The Arizona Diamondbacks are pushing an attractive home schedule that includes visits by the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, and weekend dates with the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Cleveland Indians are marketing the 2019 MLB All-Star Game at Progressive Field. The Oakland A’s are promoting their A’s Access program that includes entry to every home game with any seat plan purchase.

“Each team and each market is their own situation, and clubs are leaning into those local storylines as much as possible,” said A’s President Dave Kaval. “We have momentum coming out of our playoff berth last year, our young talent, and A’s Access, and that’s what we’re pushing.”

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