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Up or down? Experts offer thoughts on NFL ratings

For decades, NFL TV ratings were like growth stocks, delivering year after year. But in 2016 ratings fell an average of 8 percent, with blame centering on the attention paid to the presidential race. In 2017 they fell another 9.7 percent. The national anthem controversy was cited as part of the reason, but the struggles of brand-name teams such as the Broncos, Cowboys, Giants, Packers and Redskins, each of whom missed the playoffs, didn’t help, nor did injuries to several stars, including Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck and Houston defensive end J.J. Watt. 

 

Those players are back and the political controversies are largely baked in, so any viewers who would spurn the NFL over player protests have likely already done so. With all that in mind, what will happen to TV ratings this season? We asked three experts and veteran league-watchers for their thoughts. 

 

Marc Ganis

President, SportsCorp Ltd.

 

Streaming ratings will increase. Digital in all forms will increase. The recent pattern of early season ratings challenges and increases as the season advances and the games become more meaningful is likely to continue. Overall television ratings should stabilize and perhaps increase following the past few difficult years. 

 

I expect at least some of the big-market teams that had bad seasons will improve and that will cause an increase or stabilization in broader TV ratings just as their poor season last year caused a drop. I suspect this was the single most meaningful factor to last season’s ragging challenge.

 

Rich Greenfield

BTIG Media and Tech analyst

 

Linear TV ratings were down double digits last year, so if you look across all of prime-time TV, linear TV was down far greater than the NFL. So the backdrop is that time spent watching TV is falling rapidly. The NFL is actually holding up fairly well relative to traditional or scripted and unscripted TV shows [and] series. So, if you were to look at CBS’s ratings, ABC’s ratings, Fox’s ratings, the NFL is doing reasonably well relative to what is on at 8 o’clock on CBS. Barring some amazing schedule, it would be sort of hard to imagine ratings growing. A continued decay is probably likely just given the headwinds facing linear television, more competition for consumers’ time. The underlying trend is going to be a continued decline, kind of a secular decline. 

 

Neal Pilson

President, Pilson Communications 

 

Given the preseason excitement about the recent NFL draft and all the new, young and talented quarterbacks, plus better teams in big markets like Los Angeles, New York, Dallas and Chicago, really good teams in Philadelphia and New England, optimism in Green Bay, Detroit and Cleveland, better “Luck” in Indy, intense interest in the new “helmet rule,” [and] better games on Monday night, I’m predicting some growth in NFL ratings.

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