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Will Earnhardt’s absence help usher in sport’s next generation?

If you want a glimpse into the magnitude of Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s popularity, look no further than the amount of merchandise he moves annually relative to other NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers.

“It goes in and out, but it’s always above 25 to 33 [percent],” said Joe Mattes, vice president of marketing and licensing for JR Motorsports, which manages licensing for Hendrick Motorsports and which Earnhardt co-owns.

Earnhardt’s recent concussion issue, which is causing him to miss the final 18 races of the 36-race season, has concerned many executives around the sport, which has leveraged his star power for years. Earnhardt, 41, who plans to be back next season, has been named the sports’s most popular driver every year since 2003.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. dominates merchandise sales.
Photo by: GETTY IMAGES
But while his concussion issue has become a hot topic in industry circles, many executives say they feel resolute that the sport — which has increasingly marketed up-and-coming drivers like Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon — is not facing an insurmountable issue, however Earnhardt’s situation plays out.

“Dale is certainly a big piece of the sport, but so is Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott,” said Pat Perkins, vice president of marketing for HMS. “The sport’s longevity — I don’t think it’s in doubt. You have some really exciting talent that’s coming up that’s going to continue to emerge.”

To that point, Jill Gregory, NASCAR’s senior vice president and chief marketing officer, pointed out that the sanctioning body created programs like NASCAR Next in 2011 to help prepare for generational shifts.

“That was really designed to position us very well for any sort of transition,” Gregory said, “whether it’s the situation we see now with Dale or just the normal ebb and flow of drivers in and out of the sport.”

While not in the car, Earnhardt has continued a blistering promotional schedule for his sponsors, whether it was a meet-and-greet at Axalta Coating Systems, an ad shoot with Mountain Dew or an appearance at a PBR event for Valvoline. Earnhardt, who endorses 20 companies, also has remained active on social media.

Perkins, who said Earnhardt’s sponsors have been supportive of the situation, declined to comment on whether the organization would evaluate possible re-adjustments or make-goods. Jeff Gordon, an equity owner in HMS, has come out of retirement to split replacement duties with rising JR Motorsports driver Alex Bowman, a move that has helped assuage immediate concerns.

“It is a lot of money that we have invested, but the Hendrick Motorsports organization is who we’ve been with for 24 years,” said William Sturgill, North American motorsports director for Axalta, which says it sees a 3:1 return on investment in NASCAR. “So we appreciate their openness and candor, and support the decisions they make. The nice thing is they ask us what we think, so they’ve been a great partner.”

Earnhardt also has continued to be a presence at track.

“I personally don’t believe that the sport of NASCAR has been affected by Dale Jr.’s absence,” said Marc Bluestein, president and CEO of Aquarius Sports & Entertainment, which represents several brands in the sport. “Is it affected because he is a brand ambassador and popular figure? Yes, but so is Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart. Jeff stepped away, and everybody still raced [this year], everybody still watched.”

NASCAR’s TV ratings have seen a dip this season, although many digital- and social media metrics continue to rise. That trend has not abated since Earnhardt’s absence from racing began in mid-July, as the Cup Series is down 12 percent in viewership since that date, though the Olympics likely played a factor. The impact on ticket sales has been tougher to gauge, with tracks not releasing attendance publicly and with no earnings reports available yet that cover the time he’s been on the sidelines.

“There are probably pockets of ticket declines, but with Jeff driving, it is filling the void to some degree,” Michael Printup, president of Watkins Glen International, wrote in an email.

But Elliott’s agent, Rod Moskowitz, noted Earnhardt’s situation, while regrettable, may help usher in the next generation.

“The reality is that with Dale not racing, there’s now a lot more attention put on this youth movement in NASCAR,” said Moskowitz, principal and CEO of Fuel Sports Management Group.

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