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Super Bowl competitors

NFL owners this week are slated to name the Super Bowl host sites for 2019, 2020 and 2021, with five cities in the mix: Atlanta, Los Angeles, Miami (pitching itself as South Florida), New Orleans and Tampa Bay.

The league’s decision to award three games at once means only two of the five bidders will leave the high-stakes competition disappointed. Los Angeles’ return to the Super Bowl mix adds to the drama as well.

Here’s a look at the bidders for each of the specific contests (not all five are vying each year), along with some handicapping of who might emerge victorious.

Houston is hosting next year’s Super Bowl. Minneapolis will host in 2018.

— Daniel Kaplan

2019

Atlanta

Falcons owner Arthur Blank is putting more than $1 billion of his own money into the $1.4 billion Mercedes-Benz Stadium that will open in 2017. It’s hard to see that not winning the day, notwithstanding the ice storm that afflicted the last Super Bowl in Atlanta, in 2000.
Odds: 70 percent

New Orleans
This will be the rare Super Bowl process in which New Orleans (a 10-time Super Bowl host) is not the favorite. There may be some sentimental edge to get the owner of the Saints, Tom Benson, 88, another game, but it’s hard to see that making a difference in a league where money trumps so much.
Odds: 5 percent

South Florida
Chances are that with nearly half a billion dollars of personal investment in the Miami Dolphins’ stadium renovation project and the long tradition of Super Bowls in the region (also a 10-time host) team owner Stephen Ross will get the nod for one of the three years being discussed to host. But put Blank’s $1 billion-plus investment in his team’s stadium ahead of Ross for this year.
Odds: 20 percent

Tampa Bay
Raymond James Stadium is being updated, and Tampa has surprised before (when it won the 2009 game), but it’s hard to see a similar upset here for 2019 against this particular field
Odds: 5 percent

2020

Bidders: Atlanta, Los Angeles, South Florida, Tampa Bay

Assuming Atlanta gets the 2019 game and drops off this list, that makes the 2020 competition a contest between Los Angeles — featuring the new palace planned by Rams owner Stan Kroenke — and South Florida. The NFL bent its rules to allow Los Angeles to bid here. Normally, a stadium has to be open for more than a year before getting a Super Bowl slot; Kroenke’s stadium is slated to open for the 2019 season. One wild card to watch is whether any owners express concern that the Federal Aviation Administration still has not signed off on the stadium. Groundbreaking is planned for the summer, and clearance has still not come in from the FAA. So, call Los Angeles the favorite here — but just barely.

Odds
Los Angeles: 50 percent
South Florida: 45 percent
Tampa Bay: 5 percent

2021

Bidders: Atlanta, Los Angeles, South Florida, Tampa Bay

Chances are whichever of Atlanta, Los Angeles and South Florida has not won to this point will get the nod here. Tampa (a four-time Super Bowl host) wants to be in the league’s Super Bowl rotation, but the level of competition among venues is so much tougher than when the market last hosted, in 2009. Assuming Atlanta and Los Angeles get the games in 2019 and 2020, make South Florida the odds-on favorite here.

Odds
South Florida: 95 percent
Tampa Bay: 5 percent

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