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Reality of fantasy sports: Engagement has limits

Can the growing engagement in online fantasy games stimulate new fan growth in the same way we have recently seen with sports video games? Probably. The interest is there. But I will close with one caution.

In 1994, when the ESPN Sports Poll first began, the entire staff participated in a fantasy — no, make that “rotisserie” — football league. Someone served as commissioner, which meant that at the end of the week he or she had to figure

out all the points — by hand. Back then, some league commissioners got a percentage of the money in the pool for keeping the stats. I don’t think either AOL or Yahoo was hosting at the time.

And we all seemed to know others who were playing in similar leagues — so it was a bit surprising when our early, and continuing, Sports Poll results would show only about 7 percent of all Americans were actively participating in fantasy leagues in a given year. That 7 percent figure stayed fairly stable for about 15 years. Fantasy sports participation was small, and it wasn’t growing, but there was a good and logical reason why: Playing fantasy sports is the pinnacle fan experience. To consistently succeed requires the player to not only master the game and the strategies, but also to understand how those strategies are used by every team, coach and player in the league, and how those strategies vary by matchup between two particular teams.

By contrast, the least engaged sports fans rarely play fantasy sports. They might catch part of a game from time to time. A step up from that is the average sports fan who is a regular game viewer. More dedicated still is the fan with a favorite team who captures all the information about the team and players throughout the week, not just on game day. Then there are the history buffs who link the day’s game to the history of the series between the two teams. But the most successful fantasy player needs to be able to do all of that for all the teams, not just the favorite team. That takes quite a commitment and explains why fantasy players are the ultimate sports fans. It is no surprise there are so few of them.

But in recent years, we started to see significant growth in fantasy play. The first nudges were in 2011 and 2012, when 7.7 percent of Americans reported playing in the previous 12 months. That grew to 8 percent in 2013 and 8.6 percent in 2014, breaking the decade-long stall. The growth was not just in the percentage of participants but also in how often they engage in fantasy activity online (where virtually all fantasy play is done today). In 2012, 4.9 percent of Americans engaged in online fantasy activity weekly. By the end of 2014, that had grown to 6.3 percent. Daily activity has grown from 2.2 percent in 2012 to 2.6 percent in 2014. Small numbers still, but growing.

The heart of that growth, and of fantasy play in general, is with men ages 12-34. Chart 1 (at top) shows the percentage, by age and gender, who engage in online fantasy sports activity weekly. The average over the three years for men 12-17 is 12.5 percent, but that number grew from 11.1 percent in 2012 to 15.7 percent in 2014. Men 18-34 are the sweet spot for fantasy play. The three-year average is 13.5 percent and has grown from 12.4 percent in 2012 to 16.4 percent in 2014.

The lead by 18- to 34-year-olds over younger males is no doubt enhanced by the 18-and-older age restrictions to play most daily games online. The new daily formats allow fans to experience the fantasy challenge without having to invest all that time. Chris Russo, CEO of Fifth Generation Sports and former chairman of Big Lead Sports/Fantasy Sports Ventures, sees online daily fantasy as a way of converting the ultimate fan experience into the bite-sized world of online activity. I think that is why we are seeing growth in the last few years and why it is most attractive to males 12-34.

Fantasy play beyond men 12-34 falls off quickly and has not seen the same recent growth spurt. Chart 2 (above) shows the percentage change in daily online fantasy activity by age and gender. Notice that men 18-34 are on top and growing; men 12-17 are just behind but growing too. The rest are significantly behind and/or not growing.

One caution: Successful fantasy play requires the broadest fan experience, but the most important factor in long-term, engaged fan experience is having a favorite team. It is a relationship that can be passed down from generation to generation. Fantasy has the potential to dilute that relationship. The best fantasy players watch far more games and consume far more sports information than all other fans, but they often do that instead of being dedicated to and having a sense of belonging with their favorite team.

Here are the risks of fan engagement built on fantasy play. First, it is active only as long as the person wants to be that invested in the sport. Today, that seems to be about age 35. You can’t really do it well casually. When your interest wanes, there is no guarantee you will fall back on what used to be your favorite team. Second, as a young fan, if fantasy is your first approach, you may never develop a favorite-team relationship in the first place, so there will be no fallback position when you are no longer interested in fantasy. Finally, what legacy will fans built on fantasy have to pass on to their kids? Fans are mostly born in families with favorite teams.

Rich Luker (rich@lukerco.com) is the founder of Luker on Trends and the ESPN Sports Poll.

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