The debate about whether Kyler Murray made the right decision when he opted to give back a $5M signing bonus from the A’s to enter the NFL Draft has quieted of late, as speculation swirls that the Cardinals might take Murray with the No. 1 overall pick. However, with Murray taking part in Oklahoma's Pro Day today, an examination by THE DAILY at career earnings by similarly situated players in both sports -- QBs and baseball position players drafted out of college -- reveals that, from a financial perspective, it was a clear-cut decision all along. While baseball vs. football might be a close call for some players, it is an easy one for a QB -- and especially for a QB who does not also pitch. Comparing first-round QBs to first-round college baseball position players (non-pitchers) in each of the last 15 draft classes in both sports, the median QB had higher career earnings than his baseball counterpart in all 15 years. QBs had both far higher ceilings and far lower floors, as the highest earning QB outpaced the highest earning position player in 14 of 15 cases and the lowest earning QB earned more than the lowest earning baseball player in every case. From '04-15, the lowest earning QB in each draft class still collected career earnings of at least $10M. In only one of those years did the lowest earning baseball player crack $2M. So great is the disparity, the lowest earning QB has outpaced the best compensated baseball player in eight of 15 years. The study does not include players from junior colleges, thereby excluding '10 No. 1 MLB Draft pick Bryce Harper.
POCKET PRESENCE: Even the MLB players who became stars were outpaced by the highest earning QB drafted in the same year. For example, Giants C Buster Posey (No. 5 pick, '08) has earned $107.6M, while Falcons QB Matt Ryan (No. 2 pick) has earned $163.2M. Additionally, Giants 3B Evan Longoria (No. 3 pick, '06) has earned $77.3M, while former QB Jay Cutler (No. 11 pick) has earned $122.2 million. Even if a player's clock is set back three years to account for time in the minors, QBs still earn more.
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CAREER EARNING OF FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS AND COLLEGE BASEBALL POSITION PLAYERS
|
| |
YEARS
|
HIGH
|
PLAYER
|
LOW
|
PLAYER
|
MEDIAN
|
AVG
|
| MLB |
'18
|
$7,025,000
|
Joey Bart
|
$2,250,000
|
Seth Beer
|
$4,660,000
|
$4,574,211
|
| NFL |
'18
|
$22,329,440
|
Baker Mayfield
|
$5,448,471
|
Lamar Jackson
|
$13,965,846
|
$14,732,093
|
| MLB |
'17
|
$7,005,000
|
Brendan McKay
|
$2,820,200
|
Logan Warmoth
|
$3,850,000
|
$4,208,000
|
| NFL |
'17
|
$21,504,146
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
$9,713,635
|
Deshaun Watson
|
$11,762,661
|
$14,326,814
|
| MLB |
'16
|
$6,200,000
|
Nick Senzel
|
$1,772,500
|
Will Smith
|
$3,286,700
|
$3,309,786
|
| NFL |
'16
|
$23,677,990
|
Jared Goff
|
$6,422,593
|
Paxton Lynch
|
$22,588,656
|
$17,563,080
|
| MLB |
'15
|
$7,694,050
|
Dansby Swanson
|
$1,490,830
|
Chris Shaw
|
$2,123,200
|
$3,420,338
|
| NFL |
'15
|
$25,258,894
|
Jameis Winston
|
$24,239,134
|
Marcus Mariota
|
$24,749,014
|
$24,749,014
|
| MLB |
'14
|
$5,049,950
|
Kyle Schwarber
|
$2,035,500
|
Casey Gillaspie
|
$2,860,400
|
$3,391,749
|
| NFL |
'14
|
$40,654,802
|
Blake Bortles
|
$7,707,913
|
Johnny Manziel
|
$12,850,238
|
$20,404,318
|
| MLB |
'13
|
$19,731,848
|
Kris Bryant
|
$1,839,400
|
Eric Jagielo
|
$3,170,248
|
$5,208,905
|
| NFL |
'13
|
$9,685,300
|
E.J. Manuel
|
$9,685,300
|
E.J. Manuel*
|
$9,685,300
|
$9,685,300
|
| MLB |
'12
|
$9,271,468
|
Mike Zunino
|
$1,525,000
|
Victor Roache
|
$2,422,293
|
$3,383,721
|
| NFL |
'12
|
$97,107,998
|
Andrew Luck
|
$11,537,954
|
Brandon Weeden
|
$48,377,226
|
$51,350,101
|
| MLB |
'11
|
$31,500,000
|
Anthony Rendon
|
$1,175,000
|
Levi Michael
|
$6,506,724
|
$11,062,890
|
| NFL |
'11
|
$104,692,164
|
Cam Newton
|
$12,546,345
|
Jake Locker
|
$16,056,427
|
$37,337,841
|
| MLB |
'10
|
$21,565,000
|
Yasmani Grandal
|
$1,359,000
|
Kolbrin Vitek
|
$2,000,000
|
$4,931,867
|
| NFL |
'10
|
$130,022,863
|
Sam Bradford
|
$9,687,500
|
Tim Tebow
|
$69,855,182
|
$69,855,182
|
| MLB |
'09
|
$21,397,500
|
A.J. Pollock
|
$900,000
|
Tim Wheeler
|
$2,993,267
|
$6,741,557
|
| NFL |
'09
|
$178,278,969
|
Matt Stafford
|
$28,328,824
|
Josh Freeman
|
$74,223,773
|
$93,610,522
|
| MLB |
'08
|
$107,615,000
|
Buster Posey
|
$1,150,000
|
Allan Dykstra
|
$14,119,383
|
$20,918,837
|
| NFL |
'08
|
$178,707,925
|
Matt Ryan
|
$147,800,000
|
Joe Flacco
|
$163,253,963
|
$163,253,963
|
| MLB |
'07
|
$54,934,217
|
Matt Wieters
|
$1,575,000
|
Beau Mills
|
$3,741,178
|
$15,997,893
|
| NFL |
'07
|
$39,365,000
|
JaMarcus Russell
|
$10,927,102
|
Brady Quinn
|
$25,146,051
|
$25,146,051
|
| MLB |
'06
|
$77,300,000
|
Evan Longoria
|
$1,976,000
|
Matt Antonelli
|
$9,618,271
|
$24,628,135
|
| NFL |
'06
|
$122,196,087
|
Jay Cutler
|
$18,810,000
|
Matt Leinart
|
$35,390,000
|
$58,798,696
|
| MLB |
'05
|
$155,817,500
|
Ryan Braun
|
$1,998,500
|
Tyler Greene
|
$55,740,943
|
$66,020,195
|
| NFL |
'05
|
$204,044,529
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
$24,454,500
|
Jason Campbell
|
$146,475,000
|
$124,991,343
|
| MLB |
'04
|
$59,843,443
|
Stephen Drew
|
$1,820,000
|
Landon Powell
|
$2,853,500
|
$16,842,611
|
| NFL |
'04
|
$235,280,004
|
Eli Manning
|
$12,306,500
|
J.P. Losman
|
$195,102,260
|
$159,447,756
|
|
*Only QB taken in round 1
|
SLOT RECEIVERS: Another way to look at it is to compare players taken at the same point in their respective drafts. Because no player from the last three MLB Draft classes has made the majors yet, we limited comparisons to '04-15. Using those metrics, QBs still have fared far better, though it is closer if you look at six QBs taken in the bottom quartile of the NFL Draft in the last 15 years.
|
NFL DRAFTEES QUARTILE COMPARISON
|
|
FROM '04-15
|
LOW
|
HIGH
|
MEDIAN
|
AVERAGE
|
|
NFL Q1
|
$12,586,002
|
$235,280,004
|
$39,365,000
|
$75,938,220
|
|
NFL Q2
|
$9,685,300
|
$187,286,864
|
$12,546,345
|
$44,765,123
|
|
NFL Q3
|
$7,707,913
|
$204,044,529
|
$12,306,500
|
$60,378,975
|
|
NFL Q4
|
$5,448,471
|
$12,850,238
|
$6,422,593
|
$8,240,434
|
|
NFL 1/1
|
$22,329,440
|
$235,280,004
|
$100,900,081
|
$100,248,832
|
|
NFL Not #1
|
$5,448,471
|
$204,044,529
|
$20,042,595
|
$47,896,852
|
|
NFL Q1, Not #1
|
$12,586,002
|
$202,917,656
|
$29,203,473
|
$57,237,748
|
|
MLB DRAFTEES QUARTILE COMPARISON
|
|
FROM '04-15
|
LOW
|
HIGH
|
MEDIAN
|
AVERAGE
|
|
MLB Q1
|
$2,834,100
|
$155,817,500
|
$15,400,000
|
$37,812,771
|
|
MLB Q2
|
$1,575,000
|
$59,843,443
|
$4,105,000
|
$10,567,125
|
|
MLB Q3
|
$1,150,000
|
$128,396,285
|
$2,309,780
|
$10,201,940
|
|
MLB Q4
|
$900,000
|
$6,506,724
|
$1,839,400
|
$2,181,870
|
|
MLB 1/1
|
$7,694,050
|
$7,694,050
|
$7,694,050
|
$7,694,050
|
|
MLB Not #1
|
$900,000
|
$155,817,500
|
$3,232,263
|
$16,313,724
|
|
MLB Q1, Not #1
|
$2,834,100
|
$155,817,500
|
$15,956,477
|
$39,067,718
|
|
* Includes position players taken from '04-15
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