Relying heavily on its women, Team USA will win 29 medals and tie for third in the medal standings at Pyeongchang, according to new projections developed by consumer data analytics firm Gracenote.
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RANK
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COUNTRY
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MEDAL PROJECTIONS
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1
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Norway
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40 medals, 13 gold
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2
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Germany
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39 medals, 15 gold
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3
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U.S.
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29 medals, 11 gold
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4
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Canada
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29 medals, 7 gold
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5
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France
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20 medals, 10 gold
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Women will win 18 of the Americans’ 29 medals, Gracenote’s numbers say, with the stars of the Games being speedskater Heather Bergsma (2 golds, 1 silver) and alpine skiers Lindsey Vonn (1 gold, 1 bronze) and Mikaela Shiffrin (1 gold, 1 silver). The stats also foresee a seminal accomplishment for the Americans, a gold medal in women’s ice hockey, something that hasn’t happened since 1998.
Only seven American men are projected to medal as individuals, including just two gold medals: Aaron Blunck in the freeski halfpipe and McRae Williams in the freeski slopestyle. Gracenote projects a shutout for two high-profile American men: figure skater Nathan Chen and snowboarder Shaun White.
To develop its projections, Gracenote takes results from major international competitions dating back to the 2014 Sochi Games, including Pyeongchang qualifying events, and then weights them based on strength of competition and the “age” of the scores.
Prior to Rio 2016, Gracenote’s projections fell substantially short of actual Team USA results. The firm successfully predicted that the U.S. would win the medal count, but it projected 88 medals — 33 fewer than the final count of 121.
Gracenote first broke into sports in 2015 by acquiring Infostrada Sports and SportsDirect Inc. Neilsen acquired the company from the Tribune Co. in December 2016.
