After years of "runaway revenue growth" through media rights, Power Five commissioners must "confront the possibility that the gravy train could slow considerably in the coming years," according to Andy Staples of SI.com. The "easy hot take given these circumstances is that the sports media rights bubble will pop." However, forecasting doom "assumes television networks are the only entities that will bid on sports rights in the future." That is "almost certainly not going to be the case." Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby said, "I really see a time when there are going to be a lot of players in the marketplace and there are going to be a lot of distribution methods." Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott said, "I don’t think anyone knows exactly what the landscape will look like or what health ESPN or Fox will have in 2023 when we’re negotiating or how significant a player a Twitter or a Facebook will be. My sense is that there will be more competition." Staples noted commissioners and ADs "look at tech giants as the white knights that could allow their leagues to keep growing revenues, but the question is whether a Google, an Apple, a Netflix or a Hulu would even want to get into the live sports business." If they did, it would be "unwise to assume they would overpay simply because their market capitalizations dwarf those of the players in the marketplace now." Scott: "Long-term, I’m very bullish on the value of premium sports rights. I see more competitors. And frankly, competitors with bigger market cap than ESPN or Comcast or DirecTV." Everyone in college sports is "watching Amazon’s streaming deal with the NFL closely."Amazon is paying a reported $50M to stream "TNF." Staples: "Why might Amazon want to stream sports? Because it can serve up ads during games" (SI.com, 5/8).
LOOKING FOR SUITORS: In West Virginia, Doug Smock wrote Conference USA is “undergoing a new round of negotiations” for ’18, trying to “recover from the collapse of rights fees” in ’16. Smock reported Sinclair "wants out," which puts the conference's deal with the American Sports Network/the new "Stadium" network "in doubt." beIN Sports also "wants out.” The league “could land a game or two more from the ESPN empire, and all the ESPN3 games it can stand.” Expect CBS Sports to “stick around." Smock: "Will another partner pop up?” Exposure should “pick up in C-USA’s next contract, but will the money perk up?” Smock: "Don’t hold your breath" (WVGAZETTEMAIL.com, 5/7). In Mississippi, Patrick Magee noted C-USA schools are "set to receive only $200,000 each in TV money for the second consecutive year, a drop of about $900,000 from the previous deal." C-USA will "eventually have a chance [to] renegotiate its TV deals, but the conference seems unlikely to get much of an upgrade next time around." ESPN, beIN Sports and CBSSN are "all set to carry C-USA football games this season." The new "Stadium" network should have a "much broader reach than ASN due to the fact that it will be live-streamed 24/7 on Twitter." Southern Miss AD Jon Gilbert said, “Deals like this are the wave of the future. I look at my children, they're 18 and 15 and watch Netflix more than they do regular TV. We all have to look at where the market is going. I don't think we can leave any stone unturned" (Biloxi SUN HERALD, 5/6).
