FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver yesterday "dropped the hammer" on Las Vegas as an NHL market, saying that his "numbers-crunching shows hockey doesn't belong in the desert," according to Alan Snel of the LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL. Silver in the piece wrote that the "farther you get from Canada ... the less economically viable hockey is." Fidelity National Financial Chair Bill Foley, who is leading the city's NHL effort, has "drawn about 11,000 season ticket deposits in a nontraditional hockey market in two months without a team in place and with an arena still under construction." He declined to comment on the article. However, Silver "belittles the 11,000 number" by noting the Jets "sold out their entire allotment of 13,000 season tickets in 17 minutes" after the Thrashers relocated to Winnipeg in '11.” Vegas Hockey Podcast Owner Mark Warner countered that argument, saying, “The difference between the Winnipeg ticket drive and ours is that they knew they had a team. We have sold out 11,000 tickets to a team that doesn’t exist" (LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL, 4/23).
LOST ON A DESERT ISLAND: Silver in the original piece wrote under the header, "Las Vegas Is A Terrible Place For An NHL Team." NHL expansion to Las Vegas "makes little sense," as a '13 analysis "estimated that there are just 91,000 NHL fans in metro Las Vegas." That is "tiny even by comparison to the six smallest NHL markets." Those have been "between 146,000 (Nashville) and 279,000 (Tampa) hockey fans," and it is "well below Seattle’s 241,000 or Quebec City’s 530,000 fans." But there is "another reason to be skeptical about Las Vegas: The city has had several professional sports franchises, and it hasn't supported them very well." It is "asking a lot for Las Vegas to support a major league team when it’s struggled to support pretty much every minor league team that’s tried to play there." If the city "has some positives, it also has some negatives, like irregular working hours, middling public transit and abundant competition for the entertainment dollar, which may depress sports attendance." There is a "much better case for an NBA team in Las Vegas," as NBA "avidity is already well above average there" (FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.com, 4/22).
