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‘Dead’ defying rule that live matters, especially among young

I am dumfounded by the ratings success of AMC’s “The Walking Dead,” which has its midseason premiere on Sunday.

That’s not a comment on the quality of the show. Rather, the series’ big ratings success has run counter to the one rule that has defined television for the past decade: live matters. People who watch scripted entertainment programming nowadays are supposed to use their DVRs (and skip the commercials) or wait to “binge-view” it all at once via Netflix.

But that’s not happening with “The Walking Dead,” which not only is posting gaudy live numbers on a live-but-same-day audience measurement, but it’s also proving to be popular within the advertiser-friendly younger demographics.

The series dethroned ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” as cable TV’s most-viewed show last season, and it beat NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” several times this year in the 18-49 demo.

Could this be the start of a trend? Is this the first sign that sports’ influence on TV programming may not be as strong as everyone believes? After all, the success of “The Walking Dead” this season came as the NFL — television’s true ratings powerhouse — saw viewer numbers dip for most of its packages.

I called Gavin Harvey to check out his opinion. I have known Harvey for decades — he’s made his career in the TV business running channels like OLN and The Sportsman Channel. Harvey understands the value of sports rights. He worked on the 2005 deal to bring the NHL to OLN, the precursor to NBC Sports Network. Harvey paid $72.5 million per year for those rights. In 2011, NBC renewed the deal for around $200 million per year.

Harvey said that networks and distributors are starting to look at their return-on-investment more than they did in the past, especially as the cost of sports rights keep rising.

“There is a point where it doesn’t make sense to win the bid, and that’s the point when networks start to look at other types of programming,” he said. “Everyone thought five years ago that sports rights were unsustainable.”

He did not see the success of “The Walking Dead” as the start of a trend just yet, pointing out that no other high-quality dramas bring in such huge audience numbers.

But he suggested that sports networks could learn from the series’ success as they search for new viewers beyond their core sports fans. When he led OLN, that search led him to pick up a package of college football games. Now, this could allow sports networks to expand beyond just live sports and studio programming.

Harvey believes the series’ live audience is helped by both social media (people have to watch Sunday nights because of Facebook and Twitter spoilers) and the cliffhangers that keep viewers tuned in.

“I think there’s an appetite for good, scripted entertainment that networks can focus on instead,” he said.

Harvey says he is a fan of “The Walking Dead” for its ability to develop plotlines that play around with big themes like spirituality and morality. He said “The Walking Dead” shows that scripted entertainment can become appointment television. He likened it to series like “The X-Files” and “Sons of Anarchy.”

I called AMC to talk about the series’ ratings performance, and they shared some eye-popping numbers. “The Walking Dead” episodes sit with professional and college football atop cable’s all-time list of most-viewed shows. Cable’s top 20 all-time audiences are from ESPN: 10 NFL games and 10 college football games.

But “The Walking Dead” has made inroads in the younger demos. Within the adult 18-49 demo, ESPN has 13 of cable’s all-time top audiences (seven college; six NFL). “The Walking Dead” takes up the other seven slots.

The AMC series shows even more strength when DVR viewership is counted. In the live-plus-seven-days viewership, ESPN games make up 11 of the 20 most-viewed shows of all time. “The Walking Dead” accounts for the other nine, including five from this past fall.

“The Walking Dead” virtually sweeps the younger demos in the live-plus-seven-days viewership (see chart), accounting for 17 of the 20 most-viewed shows of all time in the 18-49 demo. ESPN games take up the other three.

John Ourand can be reached at jourand@sportsbusinessjournal.com. Follow him on Twitter @Ourand_SBJ.

Dead Men Walking?

Top telecasts on cable among adults 18-49*

rank network program episode Broadcast Date Delivery (000s)
1 AMC The Walking Dead #501 “No Sanctuary” 10/12/14 15,312
2 AMC The Walking Dead #502 “Strangers” 10/19/14 14,186
3 ESPN CFP National Championship Oregon-Ohio State 1/12/15 13,999
4 AMC The Walking Dead #401 “30 Days Without An Accident”  10/13/13 13,881
5 AMC The Walking Dead #409 “After” 2/9/14 13,620
6 AMC The Walking Dead #416 “A” 3/30/14 13,465
7 ESPN BCS Championship Auburn-Oregon 1/10/11 13,386
8 AMC The Walking Dead #506 “Consumed” 11/16/14 13,367
9 AMC The Walking Dead #508 “Coda” 11/30/14 13,268
10 AMC The Walking Dead #507 “Crossed” 11/23/14 13,029
11 AMC The Walking Dead #504 “Slabtown” 11/2/14 12,976
12 AMC The Walking Dead #402 “Infected” 10/20/13 12,892
13 AMC The Walking Dead #410 “Inmates” 2/16/14 12,659
14 AMC The Walking Dead #404 “Indifference” 11/3/13 12,566
15 AMC The Walking Dead #403 “Isolation” 10/27/13 12,246
16 AMC The Walking Dead #503 “Four Walls And A Roof” 10/26/14 12,244
17 AMC The Walking Dead #415 “Us” 3/23/14 11,957
18 ESPN NFL regular season Packers-Vikings 10/5/09 11,938
19 AMC The Walking Dead #505 “Self Help” 11/9/14 11,864
20 AMC The Walking Dead #411 “Claimed” 2/23/14 11,800

* Live-plus-seven-days viewership
Source: AMC Networks

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