The United States will comfortably win both the overall and gold-medal standings at the Rio Games, but its premiere sport of swimming will take a step back from its recent dominance, according to projections developed by consumer data analytics firm Gracenote.
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Ledecky is projected to win three gold medals by data analytics firm Gracenote.
|
| Country |
Gold |
Silver |
Bronze |
Total |
| United States |
8 |
6 |
9 |
23 |
| Australia |
8 |
2 |
7 |
17 |
| Hungary |
4 |
0 |
5 |
9 |
| Great Britain |
2 |
4 |
3 |
9 |
| Japan |
2 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
| Country |
Gold |
Silver |
Bronze |
Total |
| United States |
38 |
23 |
27 |
88 |
| China |
29 |
26 |
16 |
71 |
| Great Britain |
18 |
16 |
22 |
56 |
| Germany |
16 |
20 |
15 |
51 |
| France |
13 |
16 |
18 |
47 |
| Russia |
15 |
12 |
16 |
43 |
| Australia |
16 |
12 |
13 |
41 |
| Japan |
14 |
10 |
12 |
36 |
| Netherlands |
6 |
11 |
11 |
28 |
| Ukraine |
6 |
5 |
15 |
26 |
Source: Gracenote
Gracenote first broke into sports in 2015 by acquiring Infostrada Sports and SportsDirect Inc. In Gracenote Sports’ first Olympic projections, the U.S. will win 88 total medals, including 38 gold. China will come in second with 71 overall medals and 29 golds, and Great Britain (56 overall/18 gold) will edge out Germany (51/16) for third place.
However, swimming won’t be the powerhouse it usually is for the U.S., according to the projections. USA Swimming is going to win 23 medals, its lowest haul since 1996. That’s still good enough to lead all nations, but “it would be the lowest in some time, and the difference between the U.S. and Australia would be the lowest in history,” said Simon Gleave, head of analysis. He predicts Australia will win 17.
The U.S. has 31 Olympic rookies on a team of 47. Even if the U.S. doesn’t rack up volume, its most famous names are projected to do well. Gracenote thinks Michael Phelps will win four more gold medals and a bronze, and Katie Ledecky will win three golds.
To develop its projections, Gracenote takes results from major international competitions dating back to London 2012 and finishing times in 2016 qualifying events, then weights them based on strength of competition and “age” of the scores. So, for instance, Missy Franklin’s performance at the 2012 Games is weighted low compared to her times at the 2016 Olympic Trials, while Ledecky’s dominant world-championship times from 2015 are given high weights in both categories.
