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Additional Data Shows Big 12 Expansion Would Increase Conference's Chances At CFP

The Big 12 by expanding the league, playing an eight-game conference schedule and staging a championship game would see "at least a 10-15 percent better chance of reaching the CFP in any given year," according to Dennis Dodd of CBSSPORTS.com. That percentage "at least doubles than the '4-5 percent' improvement" Commissioner Bob Bowlsby spoke of earlier in the week. Data compiled by Chicago-based Navigate Research for Big 12 ADs shows the most prominent names that "continue to be mentioned for expansion" include BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, UConn, Houston and Memphis. One of the scheduling models the Big 12 ADs "have been presented includes a possible 16-team Big 12." Bowlsby called that "mostly an academic [unlikely] undertaking." But Dodd noted there "seems to be an issue in even cutting the conference schedule from nine to eight." That move alone "would most likely require a renegotiating of the media rights deal with ESPN and Fox, which lasts" through the '24-25 academic year. One of the original reasons the Big 12 "stayed together five years ago during conference realignment was the implementation of a nine-game conference schedule." Adding that extra game "provided more inventory (games) for those networks" (CBSSPORTS.com, 5/4).

NEXT QUESTION: SI.com's Andy Staples wrote "new questions" for conference realignment will arise if the CFP "grows to more than four teams." Staples: "Will conferences look anything like they look now, or will some band together to sell their television rights at a higher price per school than they would have gotten outside the consortium?" The "target date for answers" is '23, as that is "when the six-year deal the Big Ten just forged with Fox will reach its conclusion." By '23, or maybe '25 if the Big Ten "opts for a brief bridge deal to allow its deals to terminate along with the Pac-12's and the SEC's, we should have some answers" (SI.com, 5/4). USA TODAY's George Schroeder wrote it is "very possible" that whenever the conference realignment process finally ends, the earth "won't shatter, and that people hoping for expansion will be very disappointed." It "remains highly uncertain the Big 12's end result will be expansion." Many of the league's powerbrokers "still have some of the same significant questions they've always had" (USATODAY.com, 5/4). West Virginia AD Shane Lyons: "I don't think that in the next 30 days there's going to be a knee-jerk reaction, like, 'Here's what we've got to do and we've got to do it by the end of the month'" (CHARLESTON DAILY MAIL, 5/5).

INCHING CLOSER: SPORTS ON EARTH's David Ubben writes every move of the last five years of college sports conference realignment "has adhered to the golden rule: If it makes cents, it makes sense." It is why, "in a land of television money up for grabs, Rutgers and Maryland ended up in the Big Ten, even if neither move made sense in a football, er, sense." But "expansion vs. the status quo isn't the only issue threatening the Big 12's future." Whether it "plays a title game will impact the bottom line," as will "reconciling a growing desire for a hypothetical Big 12 Network with the existence of the very real Longhorn Network, which has caused everyone involved but Texas itself to lose money" (SPORTSONEARTH.com, 5/5). In Houston, Mike Finger cites a source as saying that Texas is "not categorically opposed to exploring" Oklahoma President David Boren's "desire for a conference network." But the source added that Texas "would need to be convinced that giving up the Longhorn Network would be in its best interests" (HOUSTON CHRONICLE, 5/5). In Austin, Kirk Bohls writes he sees "no willingness on Texas' part to fold the Longhorn Network into a Big 12 network, even if the league gives the Longhorns an extra $15 million share to cover its LHN income." A source said that is because "'we would get the same money, but lose our branding and having our own channel? Not very compelling. If we get rid of LHN, it will be to change conferences, in my opinion'" (AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN, 5/5).

NO RUSH: In Ft. Worth, Mac Engel writes the Big 12 "contrary to popular sentiment" is "not in a hurry to do much of anything." ESPN is "not debating if it should drop The Longhorn Network," and there is "no imminent announcement that the league will form its own TV channel." A conference official said, "The only ones talking about expansion or adding a title game is the media. We aren't looking at any of this stuff right now." Engel notes the Big 12 "should be in no hurry to do anything other than possibly adding that championship game because it wants the money" (FT. WORTH STAR-TELEGRAM, 5/5). In Dallas, Chuck Carlton writes for the Big 12, the "trend lines are ominous, at least in comparison with the SEC and the Big Ten, both reaping big dividends from conference TV networks." The message "has gotten through" as the Big 12 in reality "probably cannot catch the Big Ten or SEC." Carlton: "But it can maybe get closer" (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 5/5).

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