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Media Experts Weigh In On Potential Audience, Social Media Numbers For Panthers-Broncos

The NFL’s golden anniversary Super Bowl is set, featuring Peyton Manning in possibly his last game against rising star Cam Newton on CBS. Will Panthers-Broncos top last year’s viewership record for Patriots-Seahawks? What outside factors could impact viewership heading into Sunday’s title tilt? A panel of media observers spoke via email with THE DAILY and answered those questions and more. Responses were edited for brevity and clarity.

Participants:
BHV Media co-Founder & CEO Chris Bevilacqua
Fantasy Moguls Exec Chair Geoff Reiss
Desser Sports Media President Ed Desser
Pilson Communications President Neal Pilson
Sports Desk Media President & co-Founder Eric Fernandez
Houlihan Lokey Managing Dir Chris Russo

Q: Do you see Panthers-Broncos surpassing last year’s mark of 114.4 million viewers? Why/why not?

Bevilacqua
Bevilacqua: I could see that happening. Like last year, both QBs are extremely popular and it is likely the final game of Manning's illustrious career. With these ingredients in place -- assuming it is a competitive game -- the advances that we’ve seen in digital, social, and mobile platforms could be the difference. The NFL has done a terrific job of integrating these into the fan experience and making their programming more accessible and engaging, which has helped to drive viewership gains.

Reiss: The recent trend of modest growth in overall audience will continue and this year's game will set another total audience record, narrowly eclipsing last year's mark.

Desser: This year’s matchup is unlikely to surpass last year’s game. While it is a terrific matchup, it lacks the leverage from huge participating markets, an historical rivalry or the controversy of Deflategate.

Pilson: If we get a close game into the 4th quarter, yes, we could exceed last year's audience. Intense interest in QBs Newton and Manning and the story about passing of the torch from the older Manning (possibly his last game) to Newton will fuel ratings.

Fernandez
Fernandez: There is a high probability that it will exceed last year' audience figure. First, you have a marquee QB matchup between Peyton and Cam. First time former #1 picks have ever met in a Super Bowl. You also have the “will Peyton retire if he wins storyline” and Newton is getting media attention from non-sports media as more of a cultural icon. You mix those reasons together and it should draw in a deeper, casual audience to go with existing avid football fans who are expecting a good matchup on the field.

Russo: Yes. The Panthers have an exciting offense and compelling personalities, while the Broncos bring an intense defense and the unique story of Manning playing in potentially his last game. 

Q: Do you see a scenario where the game breaks the all-time final rating record (49.1 in ’82 for Niners-Bengals)?
Bevilacqua: This would be an impressive jump from where the games have come in over the past several years. In some ways it isn’t a fair comparison. In 1982, fans could only experience the game through broadcast TV. Super Bowl 50 will be available on broadcast, online and mobile streaming, as well as a Spanish-language feed on cable. On top of that, there will be an incredible amount of engagement on digital, social and mobile platforms. If the game does break the all-time rating record, these secondary platforms will be a key reason why.

Reiss
Reiss: While I don't expect Sunday's game will top the 49.1 rating that the 49ers-Bengals game generated, I do believe that Super Bowl 50 will nudge above a 48.0 -- which is the first time that will happen since Super Bowl XX in 1986. But the rating has also become increasingly immune from many of the factors, like how competitive the game is and the strength of the matchup that affect other games, meaning that range of likely ratings outcomes is incredibly narrow.

Russo: Yes, I believe that an all-time record could be set, as long as the game is close throughout and features a number of exciting plays (thus maintaining high viewership for all four quarters).

Desser: The wild card is competitiveness. A tight game (in addition to the clever commercials) keeps viewers watching until the end.  But there's little chance for this one to exceed the all-time record rating, especially with more competition from OTT services, compared with all the other linear networks essentially conceding the night.

Pilson: I hope not. That was my first Super Bowl as President of CBS Sports so I want to keep that record rating in my hands.

Fernandez: Hard to imagine, but for reasons like Peyton retiring and Cam’s popularity, it very well could give it a run.

Q: What outside factors over the next few days do you think could impact viewership on Sunday?
Bevilacqua: The Super Bowl is so entrenched as a national holiday that it is hard to imagine anything happening -- with the exception of an unanticipated catastrophic news event -- that would materially impact viewership.

Desser: The Super Bowl is less likely to be impacted by weather keeping more people inside, since most people who are interested, plan to watch, and schedule accordingly.

Pilson
Pilson: Weather. Bad weather around the country would help the numbers. Possible blizzard in S.F.? (joking). Good ratings for halftime entertainment can benefit second-half audience.

Russo: A dramatic news events could impact viewership, but I view this as highly unlikely.

Fernandez: I don’t think a lot could impact viewership either way (positive or negative). You don’t see other networks actively programming against the Super Bowl or pulling stunts like you saw 5-10 years ago. Potentially storylines associated with the Presidential nomination race, but doubtful even that would impact viewership.

Q: There have been a record number of tweets for the last two Super Bowls. Do you see this game passing last year’s mark of 28.4 million? If so, why?
Russo
: I expect this year’s number of tweets will surpass last year’s totals, in part due to the continued growth of Twitter and social media generally. The exact number may depend upon unique or controversial football plays, commercials or musical acts.

Bevilacqua: I would expect Super Bowl 50 to pass last year’s mark, given Twitter’s user growth since last year and the growing enthusiasm for social media. While Twitter should see heavy use, Facebook (with their new Stadium product), Instagram, Snapchat and others will also be vying for the time that fans spend on their second screen during the game.

Desser
Reiss: Measuring the Super Bowl's impact on the overall social graph is difficult given the lack of reliable, centrally reported metrics across the fragmented platforms that play host to such conversations. It's a mistake to designate Twitter as the singular barometer for measuring the Super Bowl's social engagement given Facebook's growing strength as a real-time environment. That suggests that Super Bowl 50 will be the most social Super Bowl ever, though we won't have a tidy number to hang on the day.

Desser: With Twitter more ingrained, and with social being more important than ever, I’d expect the tweet-mark to be substantially smashed

Fernandez: I’m pretty confident in saying that it will given that with each day that passes, we continue to see the creative use of Twitter expand. All we need is one temporary blackout or wardrobe malfunction to set Twitter abuzz.

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