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Roundtable: Media Experts Discuss Audience Expectations For CFP National Championship

The inaugural CFP semifinals on New Year’s Day delivered on hefty audience expectations, giving ESPN the two most-viewed telecasts in the history of cable TV. With the semis earning audiences that rival some early NFL Playoff games, the question now becomes how high viewership can rise for this new format. With Oregon-Ohio State set for the first-ever CFP National Championship, a panel of media experts weighed on the CFP’s debut thus far, what expectations there are for tonight’s audience and where the playoff can go from here.

Panel:

Bevilacqua Helfant Ventures co-Founder & CEO Chris Bevilacqua
Sports Media Advisors Founder & CEO Doug Perlman
Wasserman Media Group Senior VP Dean Jordan
The Trager Group Chair Mike Trager
Pilson Communications President Neal Pilson

Q: What are your expectations for the size of the audience tonight for the Oregon-Ohio State CFP National Championship?

Perlman would not be surprised if the CFP title game
audience exceeds 40 million viewers
Bevilacqua: Since this is the first ever, it’s hard to predict, but since we saw approximately 28 million viewers for each of the semifinal games, I’m expecting somewhere in the 40-45 million viewers for the championship game.
Perlman: Given the nation’s ever increasing interest in college football, the compelling story lines and the promotion and coverage that ESPN has provided, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the audience exceed 40 million viewers. I know I’ll be watching.
Trager: I expect a minimum of a 25% bump over the semifinal ratings.
Jordan: Assuming a close game from start to finish, we think the numbers will be in the range of a 19.5 to 22.0 rating with an audience of 35 million to 40 million.
Pilson: I think Ohio State-Florida State would have generated higher ratings, but the championship game should still do very well. I would project highs 20s in ratings, maybe a 30. A lot will depend on the quality of the game. A blowout in the second half when the East Coast is approaching midnight will kill the ratings -- unlike Oregon-FSU, which kept viewers since they were waiting for the second game. Despite Oregon’s novel offense and their Heisman QB, they are relatively unknown east of the Pac-12 and not many viewers really care about them.

Q: What was your reaction to the CFP semifinals reaching the top spots for all-time, most-viewed cable TV broadcasts? 

Trager is in favor of an eight-team
CFP playoff
Trager: Not surprised at all. College football has always needed an understandable and promotable format to the viewing public and they finally have one.
Perlman: I really wasn’t surprised. Football is king and you had storied programs playing in a single elimination format on what has been a traditional day for big college football games.
Jordan: Not really surprised. When we were working on the media-rights deal for the CFP and evaluating ESPN’s proposals, we projected that semifinal games played New Year’s Day would average a 15.0 rating and an audience of 27-28 million viewers.
Pilson: Not a surprise. There was all the publicity for the playoffs, a surprise blowout and a very good second game upset.
Bevilacqua: College football is clearly an ascendant property. I would have been surprised had they not reached that milestone.

Q: Is there a lot of room for growth with the Championship? Can it annually rival something like NFC/AFC Championship numbers, or go even higher than that?

Pilson said net's need loyal viewers for all four teams
plus strong casual viewers to push the ratings upward.
Pilson: The numbers next year are likely to be lower. The novelty of Year 1 probably brought casual viewers who don’t watch a lot of college football. Not sure those viewers will be back in Year 2 unless we get four historically strong schools like Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Notre Dame. You need loyal viewers for all four teams plus strong casual viewers to push the ratings up to NFL Playoff numbers.
Bevilacqua: This is the “Super Bowl” of college football and it’s only Year 1. We’ll have to see how the next several years go, including which schools ultimately make it to the games and how competitive the games end up being.  However, the NFC/AFC Championship games are on broadcast TV (vs. CFP on cable) and that will likely keep the audience levels higher for those NFL games.  
Perlman: I think the championship will only continue to grow in popularity as college football is on the rise. While the CFP Championship will annually be among the highest rated shows on television, I don’t expect it to exceed the NFC/AFC Championship game audiences any time soon, especially since those games are available on broadcast TV.
Trager: I think there is growth left, but I do not feel it will rival the NFC/AFC Championship ratings. The BCS had No. 1 vs. No. 2 a number of times and failed to achieve NFL-type numbers.
Jordan: There is room for growth -- how much clearly depends on a variety of factors such as the teams involved and any unique circumstances or storylines that may exist. We don’t think ratings for the game will rival NFL conference championship games for several reasons including the fact that those games are televised on broadcast networks, and the fact that casual fans have a greater knowledge of the participating teams and are more likely to watch.

Q: Does the strong CFP audience in Year 1 make it any more likely the “powers that be” move toward a 6- or 8-team playoff before the current TV deal expires?

Bevilacqua said there doesn’t appear to be a lot of
support by presidents for expanding the CFP field
Jordan: No. Even if you set aside the fact that expansion isn’t contemplated in the TV agreement, one year of positive results won’t influence the thinking of the commissioners any more than it would have if the first year results hadn’t been so positive. Perhaps one reason why the semifinals attracted such large audiences is because four teams is the right number. You can’t automatically assume expanded playoffs will lead to similarly high numbers for a quarterfinal round without knowing the format and participation qualifications. There are some potential formats and qualifying requirements where it could be argued the numbers might not be significantly greater than currently generated by traditional bowl games.
Bevilacqua: I don’t see that. There doesn’t appear to be any significant support by college presidents for expanding the field, and there is probably also a fair amount of resistance from coaches about putting their athletes through the wear and tear of a 15-16 game schedule.
Perlman: I think it does. The biggest hurdle was getting to a playoff format at all. Now that we have it and the fans and advertisers have spoken, it seems more likely that the format will be expanded. It won’t be easy but it seems like there are a lot of people that stand to gain from another round of playoffs.
Trager: I am in favor of an eight-team format, but I doubt we will see it any time soon, despite the current ratings success. College football has always moved slowly and cautiously and I do not see that changing in the near future.
Pilson: CBS Sports suggested an eight-team playoff as far back as 1992 when I was President. I still believe in an eight-team tournament. I think there will be a move to an eight-team playoff, perhaps in the last couple of years of the current term when the rights will be up for renegotiation and ESPN will want to preempt the field with a new deal and increased rights fees.

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