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DECISION '98, PART I: WATCH ON THE WEST

          San Diego voters will go to the polls Tuesday to cast
     their ballot on Proposition C (Prop C), a referendum
     earmarking $225M in future hotel tax revenues toward the
     financing of a proposed $411M ballpark plan for the Padres. 
     The latest poll numbers released last week showed Prop C
     leading by 30% with a small number (9%) still undecided. 
     The Padres' World Series appearance only helped their cause
     and ballpark opponent Strike Three on Prop C (STOP C) co-
     Chair Diane Dixon admitted that "'baseball fever' being at a
     high pitch in San Diego may sway people to the affirmative
     side."  San Diego State Political Science Professor Dr. Ed
     Heck told THE DAILY: "I would think it's going to be very
     close and that if it passes, it will be because the Padres
     got to the World Series this year."
          GOTV EFFORT: Campaign consultant Tom Sheppard of "Yes
     on C" said his group has targeted their get-out-the-vote 
     efforts toward their strongest supporters, males under 35. 
     With this demo the least likely to turn out in an off-year
     election, Sheppard said, "We have sent absentee ballot
     applications to every registered voter who's a male under
     the age of 35."  Yes on C is also targeting women, the
     largest group of "persuadables," and older voters in its TV
     and radio campaigns.  Dixon admitted the STOP C campaign has
     been forced to rely on free media to get their message out,
     being outspent 708 to 1 by Prop C.  Dixon: "We are going 
     directly to the voters -- going to forums, to street fairs
     and doing a lot through the Internet."  Dixon added that the
     local TV media "have come to see us as a very credible
     opponent.  They will usually give us equal response time. So
     we are getting some free media, certainly not to the extent
     that the Padres do, but at least enough to get our message
     out.  We've probably had the most difficulty with radio. 
     Most of the radio stations have shut us out completely."  
          WHAT'S THE MESSAGE? With its "More Than A Ballpark" tag
     featured predominately in its pro-ballpark ads, Sheppard
     said that Yes on C is stressing redevelopment and
     revitalization in downtown San Diego, with "no new taxes"
     involved in building the park.  Dixon said that STOP C has
     stressed the various city programs lacking proper funding --
     "Ballpark, Thanks Have One.  Library, Sure Could Use One" --
     an inferior site for the ballpark and the fact that a new
     facility will mean less affordable seats for Padres games. 
          TURNOUT KEY: SDSU Professor Heck said the presence of a
     ballpark measure could lead to a small bump up in turnout on
     Tuesday: "A small percentage of baseball enthusiasts who
     essentially are voting for baseball and the Padres probably
     will show up who wouldn't otherwise.  As to whether the
     opposition can stimulate some typical non-voters to show up
     to vote against it, my guess is no."  Dixon said if turnout
     is less than 40% of registered voters, "We will have a clear
     no vote."  But if it skews higher than that, she feels Prop
     C will likely pass.  National turnout for the off-year
     election is expected to be 39% this year (THE DAILY).
          LATER THIS WEEK: THE DAILY will continue to focus on
     Tuesday's referendums in San Diego and Denver with an
     examination of the paid political advertisements (TV, print
     and radio) running in both markets.  See tomorrow for more. 

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