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BET YOUR MONEY MAKER: ANALYSTS DIFFER ON RATE OF RETURN

          Media buyers say the price of TV spots during NFL games
     "could jump as much as 20% next season, compared with last
     year's 8% boost," according Beatty & Ono of the WALL STREET
     JOURNAL.  Some media buyers suspect that "advertisers will
     grumble, but ultimately crumble."  The most expensive non-
     Super Bowl or playoff 30-second spots "are priced at a peak
     of around $350,000" (WALL STREET JOURNAL, 1/15).  Joe
     Mandese of the Myers Report, which tracks TV advertising,
     predicts the nets will be able to negotiate a 10% increase
     in ad rates for the '98 season (HOUSTON CHRONICLE, 1/15). 
     Stacey Shepatin, a media buyer for Boston-based Hill Holiday
     Connors Cosmopulos: "Advertisers are going to hesitate to
     pay huge increases to support what the networks will be
     paying the NFL, especially since viewership continues to
     drop off" (BOSTON GLOBE, 1/15).  CNBC's Mike Hegedus
     reported that, under the deal, ABC will pay about $27.5M per
     game for "MNF."   Hegedus: "If they try to recoup the price
     strictly from ad sales, there will be roughly 59 30-second
     commercials in each Monday night game. ... That's $466,000
     per spot.  Last year, it was $300,000."  BJK&E Media Group's
     John Lazarus: "We move on incremental increases of 10, 12%,
     something like that.  So you can't just take quantum leaps
     and double our costs."  Hegedus: "All the ad folks we talked
     to think the networks involved will need help to even come
     close to breaking even on this deal, at least in real
     dollars" ("The Edge," CNBC, 1/14).
          ONE VIEW: An editorial in today's N.Y. TIMES states,
     "Somewhere in that mediaspeak lies a core belief shared by
     TV executives and advertisers alike -- football is
     television's only reliable mechanism for attracting a large,
     steady audience of younger male viewers" (N.Y. TIMES, 1/15).
          WHO WILL PAY? In N.Y., Jon Elsen writes that industry
     observers say the ESPN Sunday night deal "may give federal
     regulators added incentive to change rules that let cable
     networks require cable operators to carry all of their shows
     or none," which could allow operators to skip ESPN's Sunday
     night NFL games, making them "part of a premium offering"
     (N.Y. POST, 1/15).  ESPN CEO Steve Bornstein said that the
     fees cable operators pay to carry ESPN "will only rise 'a
     few cents' per subscriber to help pay for the new deal" (AD
     AGE DAILY, 1/14).  In Philadelphia, Edward Moran writes
     under the header, "You'll Help Line NFL's Pockets, Too"
     (PHIL. DAILY NEWS, 1/15).  In Ft. Lauderdale, Patricia Horn
     writes under the header, "Who Will Pay Big NFL Tab?  You
     Will" (SUN-SENTINEL, 1/15).  In S.F., C.W. Nevius: "Does it
     seem far-fetched that soon, not only will we not be able to
     afford to buy a ticket to see the local NFL team in the
     stadium, but we will have to pay just to watch the game on
     our own television set? (S.F. CHRONICLE, 1/15).
          

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