The NFL's four-year, $4.4B TV package expires at the end of this season. As the NFL renegotiates the rights to its TV packages, THE DAILY took a straw poll of a select group of 25 industry executives and media analysts to forecast the future of the league's TV presence. While the general consensus is that the incumbents should prevail when the negotiations are completed, many feel that the NFL's TV partners should expect to pay a hefty increase to remain partners with the league. Among the results:
WHICH NETWORK WILL ACQUIRE THE FOLLOWING PACKAGE? |
NFC | AFC | SUNDAY NIGHT | "MNF" |
Fox | 92% | -23 | NBC | 88% | -22 | ESPN/TNT | 68% | -17 | ABC | 92% | -23 |
CBS | 4% | -1 | CBS | 12% | -3 | ESPN alone | 20% | -5 | CBS | 4% | -1 |
NBC | 4% | -1 | | FSN | 8% | -2 | Fox | 4% | -1 |
| CBS | 4% | -1 | |
WHAT PERCENTAGE INCREASE WILL THE LEAGUE SEE? |
45% | 4% (1) | | 70% | 24% (6) |
50% | 24% (6) | 80% | 8% (2) |
60% | 28% (7) | 90% or more | 12% (3) |
WHICH NFL PACKAGE(S) WILL SEE THE GREATEST % INCREASE? |
Monday Night | 40% (10) | | AFC | 28% (7) |
Sunday Night | 32% (8) | NFC | 12% (3) |
YOU WANT MORE? Asked if a new TV package would be added, 72% of the respondents said no; 28% said yes. Of those who said there would be a fifth package, 16% said Thursday night was the most likely to be added, 9% thought a holiday package would be added, 4% picked a Friday package and 4% thought a hybrid package consisting of Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays and holidays would be awarded. Almost two-thirds -- 64% -- said the new TV deals would cover four years, 16% said the deals would be for five years, 8% said seven, 4% said three and another 4% said 4-6 years. Pilson Communications President Neal Pilson said the length of the deals "depends on the labor deal. The NFL may stagger cable and go four years rather than six to seven for broadcasts." SPEAKING OF THE CBA: The biggest question regarding the negotiations is whether the length of the deals will coincide with a CBA extension. While 44% said a CBA extension would accompany the new deals, 36% said there would be no extension and 20% were undecided (THE DAILY). TIME IS ON OUR SIDE: Asked if the NFL would mandate that "Monday Night Football" start at 8:00pm ET in its new deal, instead of the current 9:00pm ET start, 72% said no while 24% said yes, with 4% undecided (THE DAILY). THE CBS FACTOR: CBS is clearly the wild card in the negotiations. SMTI Chair Mike Trager: "Don't underestimate CBS on over-the-air or Fox on the cable side." BJK&E Media Broadcast Partner Steve Sternberg said, "If there's a new night, CBS will probably get it. They might be able to get Monday night otherwise. ... There's also a possibility CBS could get the AFC games, depending on how much money NBC is willing to lose to keep them." L.A. Daily News media writer Tom Hoffarth said CBS could get "some small piece in the form of a Thursday/holiday package," and added, "Maybe the big shock in all this will be that CBS gets into the Super Bowl rotation again after three or four years into the new deal." Pilson said ABC, which pays $230M a year in its current deal, is "in trouble [because] CBS will make a strong run to $400 million [per year]." Pilson also noted one "possible scenario" in which the NFL looks to double each package "due to owner pressure" (THE DAILY). MO' MONEY: Despite a ratings dip, the NFL's importance to the networks is greater than ever, and CBS's interest only helps the league. National Media Group co-CEO Peter Kaplan said, "The owners have raised the bar in light of the NBA-NBC deal, and CBS's desire to get back into the game gives the NFL great leverage." Added SMTI's Trager: "The NFL is fortunate to have these stalking horses." Still, most think the incumbents will retain their packages. The Marquee Group President & CEO Bob Gutkowski: "At the end of the day no incumbent NFL network will be able to say no." Cohn & Wolfe Senior VP/Dir of Sports & Events Jay Rosenstein: "It is difficult to imagine that these four leading multinational corporations (News Corp., GE, Disney and Time Warner) will not be able to match -- or be willing to match -- any offer presented by CBS or by another of the big four for their package." ISI CEO Frank Vuono: "Don't expect anything fancy. It ain't broke" (THE DAILY).