Experts Discuss NCAA Title Game Viewer Expectations For Turner

College football’s championship game shifted from broadcast to cable TV back in ’11, and tonight marks college basketball’s turn. Villanova-North Carolina on TBS will be the first men’s NCAA Tournament finale on cable TV (along with Team Streams on TNT and truTV), and with that in mind, a few media observers spoke via email with THE DAILY and gave their audience predictions for tonight’s game. Answers were edited for brevity and clarity. The Trager Group Chair Mike Trager said even though tonight is a “compelling matchup,” the telecast will “struggle to exceed 21 million total viewers.”

Desser Sports Media President Ed Desser noted the “downdraft from low-rated semifinals – on the heels of a generally lower rated tournament – together with the move to TBS will combine to significantly lower” tonight’s audience. Desser also noted that with the move to cable, there will be “one more broadcast network (CBS) programming regular programming against the game that will further dampen viewing.” Desser: “I’d look for a decline of 20-25%.” Blue Sky Media NYC's Leslie Gittess said viewership “will be smaller” this year, “possibly in the 18-20 million range.” She noted Villanova and UNC “do not have any players that will be top NBA draft picks this June.” Gittess: “That said, March Madness is a tradition, like watching the Super Bowl or Presidential debates. People will be watching and streaming in very large numbers."